Despite aggressive interest rate hikes and an economy that is beginning to cool, inflation in Canada remained elevated in October. The consumer price index rose by 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, matching September’s increase. On a month-over-month basis, the index rose by 0.7%, the largest increase since ... READ MORE >
inflation
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. The strong month, which followed a flat month in September, suggested that, at least for now, a recession was not at hand. Sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.3% with broad-based increases. Nine of ... READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
As the Federal Reserve struggles to tame inflation, the central bank is raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions in what we think is a regime change that will increase the cost of both public and private debt and curb growth. We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in ... READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway. While overall price growth has cooled, though, the housing components inside the two inflation reports—the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—have shown no signs of ... READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
Inflation in the U.S. economy is approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability and households can begin seeing possible relief from a deterioration in real income. The October consumer price index, which rose by 0.4% ... READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. But with the right targeted measures that encourage businesses to make productivity-enhancing investments, ... READ MORE >
Canada adds a stunning 108,000 jobs in October, reversing decline of prior 5 months
In a stunning turnaround, Canada added 108,000 jobs in October, reversing all the losses from May to September. The outsize gain and the resilience of the job market suggest that the Bank of Canada will announce another supersize interest rate hike next month. Wages increased by a robust 5.6% and ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. With the data on job openings coming out hotter than expected this week, the imbalance between labor demand and supply continued to keep ... READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes while it assesses the impact of past increases. We expect at least a 50-basis-point hike in December, another 50-point hike in January and then ... READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing production grow more than expected
Job openings came in hotter than expected in September, suggesting that the imbalance in the labor market will take longer to resolve than originally anticipated. There were 1.9 job vacancies for each unemployed worker, near a record high, according to data from the Labor Department released ... READ MORE >