The downturn in manufacturing activity continued for the sixth consecutive month in October, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index. With surging inflation and rising interest rates acting as a deadweight on business activity and expansion, it is likely that the global economy is either in or ... READ MORE >
inflation
Consumer confidence falls in October amid inflation concern
Consumer confidence fell below expectations in October as inflation concern persists. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was down to 102.5 from 107.8 from a month earlier. Consumers' expectations for the median inflation over the next 12 months rose to 6.2% from 6.0%, the highest in three ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly last week despite the impact of Hurricane Ian in Florida. New claims fell by 5.3% to 214,000, below the pre-pandemic average in 2019 as layoffs remain historically low, according to government data released Thursday. In the bigger context, new ... READ MORE >
U.S. housing starts continue to fall amid rate hikes
New housing starts fell by 8.1% in September as the impact of rising mortgage rates worked through the housing market, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. There were 1.4 million housing starts on an annualized basis in September, significantly lower than the 1.7 million that we see as needed to ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation refuses to cool
September’s consumer price index for Canada put out any hope that inflation will get back under control anytime soon and only added pressure on the Bank of Canada to maintain its aggressive interest rate hikes. Canada’s CPI rose by 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, slightly down from 7% in August, ... READ MORE >
End of an era? Bond market selloff prompts a new regime
The dramatic fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic has elicited a structural break in globalization, growth and liquidity regimes that have driven the world's economies over the past 25 years. Gone is the hyper-globalization that was the primary driver of low inflation and low interest ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises despite worsening inflation expectations
U.S. consumer sentiment rose for the fifth straight month to 59.8 in October but a worsening inflation outlook clouded the otherwise positive news, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. Solid income growth in a tight labor market is keeping household financial conditions strong as sentiment ... READ MORE >
Retail sales stay flat as inflation remains elevated
American consumer spending was unchanged in September, held back mainly by auto and gasoline sales as prices at the pump and auto dealers fell on the month, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. The data was not adjusted for inflation. With inflation controlled for, sales volume was also flat ... READ MORE >
As the U.S. dollar surges, the potential for a currency crisis grows
The liquidity crunch driving the withdrawal of bond purchases by global central banks is creating the conditions of a classic policy quandary that is stoking international financial instability. The challenge in balancing growth, inflation and financial stability is now being exacerbated by ... READ MORE >
Inflation remains hot, sticky and elevated, implying another supersized rate hike
Both top-line and core inflation remain hot, sticky and elevated, which implies that the path of monetary policy demands another supersized rate increase of 75 basis points at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting. The September Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% on the month and was up by 8.2% on ... READ MORE >