The Institute for Supply Management’s service index rose in November as business activities increased on the month. … READ MORE >
inflation
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector nears contraction
The ISM’s manufacturing index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight decline as demand for manufactured goods stalled. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops as outlook darkens
The Conference Board’s confidence index dipped to 100.2 in November from 102.2 in the prior month, significantly below the pre-pandemic level at 130. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
Canada inflation remains elevated amid high gas prices
Canada’s consumer price index in October rose by 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, matching September’s increase. … READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
U.S. inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >