The Conference Board’s confidence index dipped to 100.2 in November from 102.2 in the prior month, significantly below the pre-pandemic level at 130. … READ MORE >
inflation
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
Canada inflation remains elevated amid high gas prices
Canada’s consumer price index in October rose by 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, matching September’s increase. … READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
U.S. inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
Canada adds a stunning 108,000 jobs in October, reversing decline of prior 5 months
The outsize gain and the resilience of the job market suggest that the Bank of Canada will announce another supersized interest rate hike next month. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >