We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
inflation
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
U.S. inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
Canada adds a stunning 108,000 jobs in October, reversing decline of prior 5 months
The outsize gain and the resilience of the job market suggest that the Bank of Canada will announce another supersized interest rate hike next month. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes. … READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing production grow more than expected
Job openings came in hotter than expected in September, suggesting that the imbalance in the labor market will take longer to resolve than originally anticipated. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Continued signs of a slowdown
Our composite measure of manufacturing activity shows that the decline has reached more than 1.6 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls in October amid inflation concern
Consumer confidence fell below expectations in October as inflation concern persists. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index was down to 102.5 from 107.8 from a month earlier. … READ MORE >