Inflation stabilized further in July as the consumer price index data met expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. The slight uptick in annual inflation to 3.2% from 3.0% could be dismissed due to the base year effect, as inflation has come down fast from a peak in June last ... READ MORE >
inflation
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: A continued decline in July
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index moved sideways in July as manufacturing firms in four of the five Federal Reserve regions again reported outright declines in activity as well as declines in new orders. Only the New York region reported increased activity and a rise in new orders, and ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
Having weathered turmoil in the banking sector and the standoff over the debt ceiling, financial conditions in the United States are easing, moving toward levels of risk normally priced into financial assets. But while signals from the equity market are positive, the bond market continues to ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage gauge falls to lowest level since June 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Federal Reserve's closely watched metric on wage growth—increased by 1.0% in the second quarter, the slowest rate since June 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. That brought the 12-month increase of overall employment compensation down to ... READ MORE >
Resilience defined as American economy continues to defy expectations
Looking for a working definition of resilience? Take a look at the American economy, which expanded at a 2.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter (2.6% on a year-ago basis). Driving that growth was a durable American household, which boosted consumption by 1.6% between ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits drop in June as rates surge
Housing starts and permits dropped in June after surging in May amid market volatility because of interest rate increases. New residential starts fell by 8% on the month, while permits for new buildings declined by 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. The drop came as mortgage ... READ MORE >
U.S. second-half economic outlook: Muddling through
The resilient American economy refuses to go gentle into that good night. The evidence is growing stronger: A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates. That reality, reflected by what looks to be ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment highest in nearly two years
Consumer sentiment jumped to its highest level since September 2021 on the heels of continuing disinflation and an improved view of household finances, according to the University of Michigan's survey on Friday. The top-line sentiment index increased to 72.6 in July, from 64.4 ... READ MORE >
Inflation slows to 3% in June but the Fed’s work is not done
Disinflation across the economy driven by easing goods and some service costs is good news for beleaguered households that have had to bear the burden of both inflation and interest rate shocks in recent years. The 3% year-ago increase in the consumer price index reported by the Labor ... READ MORE >
Spending and inflation cool in May
Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve's key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. The Fed's job in restoring price stability, however, is not done. Underlying inflation, ... READ MORE >