With inflation easing and the labor market showing some signs of softening, the Fed has signaled that it intends to cut rates three times this year. But when will those cuts start? … READ MORE >
inflation
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control
Inflation remains below wage growth as real hourly wages increased by 1.1% on the month and on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Service sector continues to grow in February
The service sector continued to grow in February for the 14th straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Softer economic data reaffirms prospect of a soft landing
Softer economic data reaffirms we are inching closer to a soft landing
… READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each. … READ MORE >
Service sector grows faster than expected in January
The ISM service data is another reason to believe the Federal Reserve should not rush cutting rates this year. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts
The Federal Reserve shifted its bias on monetary policy away from tightening to a balance of risks that favors neither rate hikes nor cuts. … READ MORE >