The national unemployment rate has been 4% or lower since December 2021. Robust job gains have averaged 314,000 this year through May, and gross domestic product grew by a strong 2% in the first quarter—a reflection of the American economy’s underlying resilience. When the June employment ... READ MORE >
inflation
U.S. economy was a lot stronger in first quarter, final GDP estimate shows
The U.S. economy was stronger in the first quarter than previous estimates indicated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. The third and final estimate of gross domestic product showed a drastic upward revision to a 2.0% gain from 1.3% on a quarterly and annualized basis. The increase ... READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. While India and the United States remain areas of growth, the European Union appears to have slipped into recession and China is not experiencing the strong ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment increased to 63.9 in June, the highest since March as views on current and future economic conditions improved, according to the University of Michigan index released on Friday. While the index has bounced off the bottom of last June, it remains much lower than the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push the long-awaited recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase last week, government data released on Thursday ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. This implies a possible policy peak of 5.75% later this year. ... READ MORE >
Inflation relief in the pipeline as food, gas and service prices ease
Top-line U.S. inflation is moving back toward levels where it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to pause in its efforts to restore price stability. With underlying inflation hovering around 3% and 4%, the Fed is well positioned to keep its policy rate steady this week with the confidence ... READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
One cost of the debt ceiling crisis that is lost among most political actors and the public is that the U.S. Treasury will need to refill its coffers. That need to sell debt—$1.1 trillion of it—along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two during the third ... READ MORE >
The wealth effect and the Great Resignation
Three years after the pandemic upended the American economy, U.S. household balance sheets in general are in good shape. Assets far outstrip liabilities, with household net assets surging over the past decade to nearly $150 trillion last year. Underneath this strength, though, there is a ... READ MORE >