We think that the Federal Reserve’s current cycle of rate hikes has peaked at a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. While inflation stands well above the Fed’s official 2% target, we think that because of the economic and political shocks since the pandemic, the Fed will raise its inflation target in the ... READ MORE >
inflation
Bank of Canada holds rates steady amid a cooling economy
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 5% on Wednesday as the unexpected contraction of the economy in the second quarter gave a clear message of a cooling economy. The central bank’s decision to keep rates steady also suggested that its campaign of rate increases might be over, rendering a rate ... READ MORE >
Personal spending grows hot in July as inflation stabilizes
American consumers remained in a position of strength on spending and income growth this summer as inflation stabilized further and the labor market stayed resilient. July's personal spending surged by 0.8% while personal income grew by 0.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. With ... READ MORE >
Consumer products M&A cooled in the first half
Merger and acquisition activity among consumer products companies took a breather in the first half of the year as valuations were reset amid rising interest rates. Closed deal activity declined by more than 25% over the same period a year earlier, driven not only by the reset in valuations but ... READ MORE >
Producer prices, consumer sentiment data show signs of more price stability
Producer price data and consumer sentiment data released Friday showed signs of more price stability, and this good news on the inflation front should keep the economy on track to grow in the third quarter. The producer price index was up 0.3% in July after June's downward revision, according to the ... READ MORE >
Near-target inflation fuels hope of soft landing for economy
Inflation stabilized further in July as the consumer price index data met expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. The slight uptick in annual inflation to 3.2% from 3.0% could be dismissed due to the base year effect, as inflation has come down fast from a peak in June last ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: A continued decline in July
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index moved sideways in July as manufacturing firms in four of the five Federal Reserve regions again reported outright declines in activity as well as declines in new orders. Only the New York region reported increased activity and a rise in new orders, and ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
Having weathered turmoil in the banking sector and the standoff over the debt ceiling, financial conditions in the United States are easing, moving toward levels of risk normally priced into financial assets. But while signals from the equity market are positive, the bond market continues to ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage gauge falls to lowest level since June 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Federal Reserve's closely watched metric on wage growth—increased by 1.0% in the second quarter, the slowest rate since June 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. That brought the 12-month increase of overall employment compensation down to ... READ MORE >
Resilience defined as American economy continues to defy expectations
Looking for a working definition of resilience? Take a look at the American economy, which expanded at a 2.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter (2.6% on a year-ago basis). Driving that growth was a durable American household, which boosted consumption by 1.6% between ... READ MORE >