Recent events have caused a reset of investor expectations regarding what and when the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Market Minute: Warsh will face a searing credibility test
How will the new Fed chair balance his stated receptiveness to rate cuts with the recent rise in inflation? … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate amid global uncertainty, domestic strain
The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent—a fifth consecutive hold—due to the elevated level of uncertainty around the direction of the domestic economy and the global financial implications of the war in the Middle East. … READ MORE >
Market minute: ECB to raise rates in June
Our assessment implies that, given the current global supply shock, the ECB’s monetary policy is too accommodative. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A new inflation regime awaits Warsh
Five-year breakevens since Feb. 27 have increased from 2.445% to 2.72%, the 10-year from 2.25% to 2.5% and the 30-year from 2.19% to 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock comes home to India
Two months into the U.S.-Iran war, India is experiencing a classic external supply shock that is depressing growth and elevating inflation. India enters FY27 with exceptional structural economic advantages: 7.6% growth in its economy, reduced U.S. tariffs, a strong services export base of $418 billion, and healthy foreign exchange reserves … … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as debate intensifies
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its policy rate between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday amid vigorous debate. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again as economic uncertainty mounts
The Bank of Canada again maintained its key interest rate in a decision that provided little in the way of new information or an updated evaluation on the rapidly changing global economic environment. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Kevin Warsh and Fed independence
The nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair will face pointed questions before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >