We are forecasting a 25,000-job increase and a 4.1% unemployment rate when the August jobs data is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Strong manufacturing and jobs data ahead of Fed meeting
Tariff refunds, rising business and government spending on defense and AI-related products have been the main tailwinds for overall manufacturing demand. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s financial conditions as trade war begins
The RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index stands at a mildly accommodative 0.7 standard deviations above zero as a trade war threatens to escalate. … READ MORE >
Cautious optimism for Canada’s economy despite tariff tension
The latest data shows a solid, growing Canadian economy despite the concerns elicited by recent trade tensions and new U.S. tariffs. … READ MORE >
Canada’s targeted response to new U.S. tariffs comes as disruption looms
Canada announced a series of targeted tariffs on C$27.6 billion of U.S. imports in response to recent U.S. levies—the latest barb in a tense trade stand-off. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global investors are sounding the alarm on debt
Yields on 30-year notes in the United States and UK are at their highest levels in two decades. … READ MORE >
Producer prices unchanged, easing Fed’s hike pressure
The producer price index was unchanged on the month, while the core metric was running at the target level, rising by 0.2%. … READ MORE >
Seasonal distortions offer misguided look at U.S. labor market conditions
The U.S. economy is in a good spot heading into the second half of 2026 as the labor market is at full employment while job growth and wages do not imply second-round risks to the economy via the inflation channel. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economic tides are turning following July’s jobs report
Canada added 75,000 jobs in July, which vastly exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest in two years. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The Warsh effect and U.S. financial conditions
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says he wants the financial markets to figure it all out without the forward guidance of the Fed. … READ MORE >