Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term which underscores our call for the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate at the June meeting. Given our forecast of a modest 2.1% pace of growth this year, a cut in ... READ MORE >
interest rates
U.S. economy remained resilient in first quarter amid signs of future softening
The American economy continued to show resilience in the first quarter though signs of softening in the future emerged, according to data on durable goods and consumer confidence released Tuesday. In perhaps the most significant development on inflation, housing prices, a sticking point in the ... READ MORE >
The Fed at an inflection point: A webinar from RSM US and U.S. Chamber of Commerce
After two years of tightening monetary policy to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is at an inflection point as it considers interest rate cuts. With inflation easing and the labor market showing signs of softening, the Fed has signaled that it intends to cut rates three times this ... READ MORE >
Existing home sales exceed forecasts as prices jump
Existing home sales came in much stronger than expected to post the biggest monthly increase in a year, the National Association of Realtors reported on Thursday. There were 4.38 million existing homes sold in February, up by 9.5% from a month ago. Given that February's increase was the third in nine ... READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve is looking to cut its policy rate three times this year, according to information inferred from the Summary of Economic Projections and policy statement released on Wednesday. The cuts would reduce the policy rate by 75 basis points, from the current range between 5.25% and 5.5% ... READ MORE >
February’s inflation in Canada makes case for rate cuts
Canada's consumer price index fell to 2.8% February, marking the second consecutive month of decline and bolstering the case for the Bank of Canada to cut rates. The decline wasn't limited to just the headline number. Core measures of inflation eased as well: Trimmed CPI, which excludes extreme price ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits beat forecasts as completions reach 17-year high
Housing starts and permits rebounded sharply in February after unfavorable weather slowed projects across the country in January. Housing starts rose by 10.7% in February, while permits increased by 1.9%, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday. The increases exceeded ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales in February grew at the fastest rate since September
Retail sales rebounded in February, showing that the sharp drop in January was likely more noise than trend, according to data from the Commerce Department on Thursday. Once the seasonal factors in January’s data faded away, overall spending at retail stores, restaurants and online remained solid ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. Our forecast implies no change in the federal funds rate, which will remain in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. The FOMC’s median projection for interest rates in its dot ... READ MORE >
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control
The consumer price index increased at a robust rate in February for the second month in a row though this increase was not a surprise given the recent rise in gasoline prices, and, more importantly, the noise in housing inflation data. The top-line and core CPI numbers both grew at 0.4% on the ... READ MORE >