We have made the case for some time that the “R” word that best describes the American real economy is resilience, not recession. Despite elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening financial conditions and softening demand for loans, the economy has chugged along, thanks ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Retail sales rise as American consumers stay resilient
Retail sales rose by 0.4% in April following two consecutive months of declines, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. While the top-line number came out lower than expected, spending on retail goods continued to show an underlying strength in April. The data should support the ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment drops as inflation expectations rise
Consumer sentiment in April plunged to its lowest level since November as views on both current economic conditions and expectations worsened, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. The top-line sentiment index dropped to 57.7 from 63.5 in April. The current conditions and ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer inflation show mixed results
Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% for the week ending May 6, to 264,000, the most since 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The rise came as the Labor Department also reported the producer prices bounced back in April, in part because of favorable comparisons to surging prices of ... READ MORE >
Inflation remains sticky in April, rising by 4.9% over a year ago
Strong demand for transportation and gasoline in April bolstered by rising incomes and excess savings showed that inflation, while easing, is likely to remain sticky for the foreseeable future despite falling to 4.9% in April from 9.1% last June. April’s increase in the consumer price index ... READ MORE >
Fed survey shows a notable decline in loan demand
Further evidence of tightened lending conditions and a potential credit crunch can be seen in the notable decline in demand for credit by large and middle market firms, a new survey of loan officers from the Federal Reserve shows. This decline will affect the real economy in the near term ... READ MORE >
Canada added 41,400 jobs in April amid resilient labor market
Canada’s labor market remained resilient in April despite increasing recession fears. All key numbers released by Statistics Canada on Friday came in stronger than expected—maybe too strong for the Bank of Canada’s comfort as it tries to tame inflation. The jobs report should raise the chance of a rate ... READ MORE >
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the ... READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate for the tenth consecutive time on Wednesday, pushing the federal funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at ... READ MORE >
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
As the Bank of Canada tries to tame inflation and simultaneously guide the economy to a soft landing, most market participants are skeptical that it can pull off the feat. After months of steep interest rate increases, the higher borrowing costs are only beginning to be felt in Canada's real ... READ MORE >