This rise in the dollar will cause economic challenges around the world, with those in the emerging markets likely to face greater adjustment problems as they face a rising cost of external debt paid in dollars. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Stubborn inflation not stopping the U.S. consumer from spending
Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used robust gains in disposable income. … READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
Although a blanket tariff by the U.S. on all Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize in the first half of 2025, there is still cause for concern as selective U.S. tariffs are possible and would be disruptive to both countries’ economies. To illustrate this, look at energy and auto manufacturing — Canada’s industries with the highest exports to the U.S. … READ MORE >
Rising demand helps U.S. retail sales top forecasts
Retail sales topped forecasts in November, growing at a robust pace for the third month in a row. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Resignation of Canada’s finance minister before release of fall economic statement adds to uncertainty
Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Canada’s finance minister highlights increasing political uncertainty as financial challenges loom in 2025. … READ MORE >
How Canadian real estate leaders can adapt and succeed in a volatile 2025
Canadian real estate leaders must decide how to act in 2025 as further interest rate cuts loom, stricter immigration policies take effect and the federal government’s 10-year bonds are up. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >