We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 … … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017—as more people looked for work. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Will wage growth moderate?
A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >
October job openings surge as labor market shows resilience
Total job openings in October rose to 7.74 million from 7.37 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
given the looming fiscal and trade policy changes, it is growing more likely that the central bank will pause its rate-cutting campaign to ascertain their impact on the economy. … READ MORE >
Year ahead in Canada: Return to growth as rate cuts take hold
The Canadian economy is expected to grow at around two per cent in 2025 as unemployment falls and price stability is restored. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall in October as hurricanes take a toll
The total number of starts in October was 1.3 million, marking the 30th straight month of staying below our long-term sustainable level of 1.7 million. … READ MORE >
Canada’s prices for services and shelter decelerated in October
Canada’s consumer price index accelerated in October, but that increase will not deter a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December. … READ MORE >