The Bank of Canada will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged when it meets this week, but the tone of its statement will shift to dovish as bank officials recognize easing inflation, the slowing labour market and stagnant growth. We expect that the central bank's first rate cut will occur ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Canada’s unemployment rate surpasses 6% for the first time in over two years
To see why rate cuts are coming in Canada, look no further than the March job report. The unemployment rate reached 6.1%, surpassing 6% for the first time in over two years, according to Statistics Canada on Friday. While Canada has added more than 300,000 jobs over the past year, including a loss of ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
While it’s always good to identify risks to the economic outlook, too often market players mistake the condition of a few trees—there are always isolated problems—with the health of the forest. The March jobs report shows just how healthy the American labor market is, despite isolated criticisms. ... READ MORE >
Service sector continues to normalize in March
The service sector posted slower growth in March as price growth fell to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday. The composite index fell to 51.4 from 52.6, while the prices paid subindex dropped to 53.4 from ... READ MORE >
Job openings inch up in February
Job openings edged higher in February, suggesting that the jobs report for March will show continued strong gains when it is released on Friday. Openings rose by 8,000 to 8.756 million in September, slightly higher than forecasted, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on ... READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Until recently, the idea that economy could simultaneously have low levels of unemployment and low inflation seemed to be a fantasy. Conventional wisdom, after all, holds that when unemployment is low, businesses need to pay higher wages to attract workers, which pushes up the cost of goods and services, ... READ MORE >
In global shift to renewable energy, Canada risks being left behind
Canada’s economy is facing a carbon emissions squeeze. Even as it makes progress in meeting its carbon reduction goals by 2030, Canada is not moving fast enough. To get there, Canada needs to vastly amplify investments in renewables to cut emissions while enabling economic growth. Failing to do so ... READ MORE >
Federal Reserve’s policy path points to a rate cut in June
Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term which underscores our call for the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate at the June meeting. Given our forecast of a modest 2.1% pace of growth this year, a cut in ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy remained resilient in first quarter amid signs of future softening
The American economy continued to show resilience in the first quarter though signs of softening in the future emerged, according to data on durable goods and consumer confidence released Tuesday. In perhaps the most significant development on inflation, housing prices, a sticking point in the ... READ MORE >
The Fed at an inflection point: A webinar from RSM US and U.S. Chamber of Commerce
After two years of tightening monetary policy to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is at an inflection point as it considers interest rate cuts. With inflation easing and the labor market showing signs of softening, the Fed has signaled that it intends to cut rates three times this ... READ MORE >