We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the employment report is released on Sept. 6. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Powell at Jackson Hole: Policy pivot signals the start of rate cuts
The Fed will need to put forward an appropriate framework—including a possible new inflation target—to communicate the rapid changes affecting the economy to the public, policymakers and investors. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims stabilize amid concerns over weak job gains
Initial claims last week rose by only 4,000, to 232,000, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Similarly, continuing claims for the week ending Aug. 8 increased by 4,000, to 1.863 million. … READ MORE >
The Fed nears a pivot: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic outlook and what middle market companies should anticipate. … READ MORE >
The TIPS bond market sees 2.1% inflation over the next 10 years
The recent drop in both Treasury yields and TIPS yields are adding credence to the success of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to squeeze inflation out of the economy. … READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation fell to 2.5 per cent, solidifying case for rate cut
Inflation numbers have consistently come in below expectations this year and is firmly on track to reach 2 per cent next year. … READ MORE >
Seven reasons why the U.S. economy will not fall into recession
The American economy is not heading into a recession. The economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates and elevated inflation. … READ MORE >
Producer prices grow slower than expected, adding evidence to support rate cut
Key inflation metrics reflect a more-than-tolerable range of inflation that requires no further tightening of monetary policy. … READ MORE >
Service sector bounces back in July, easing growth concerns
The ISM service index for July rose to positive territory at 51.4 after dropping in June to 48.8, suggesting that some of the concerns over an imminent recession looked overblown. … READ MORE >
Notes on a classic market panic: Unwinding of the yen-based carry trade
The case for a supersized 50 basis-point reduction at its next meeting on Sept. 18 has been bolstered by the recent market turmoil. … READ MORE >