Shipments of core capital goods rebounded in March, adding to the reasons why the data for gross domestic product should show an upside surprise when it is released on Thursday. The core capital goods shipments data, which excludes defense and aircraft, feeds into the calculation of GDP is a proxy for ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Regime change: Businesses face higher costs in nominal and real terms
Higher-for-longer now applies to more than just the federal funds policy rate. It means a regime change for companies of all sizes when it comes to the cost of financing expansion or funding their operations. Whether it be high single-digit borrowing costs for large multinationals or double-digit ... READ MORE >
Industrial production rebounds as housing starts plunge
Tuesday's mixed data on housing and industrial production shows how both sectors remained on a bumpy path as a result of elevated interest rates. Housing starts dropped by 14.7% to 1.32 million on an annualized rate, the lowest level since last August, while permits, a proxy for future projects, also ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer sentiment falls as inflation stays sticky
Consumer sentiment in the United States ticked down in April in a sign of the impact of rising inflation, particularly gasoline prices, over the past three months. The consumer sentiment index fell to 77.9 from 79.4, according to the University of Michigan survey on Friday. While the index is ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds its rate at 5% in dovish statement
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% at its meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected, while continuing its restrictive monetary policy of quantitative tightening. But the central bank made a marked shift in its statement, turning from a focus on inflation to one on growth with a decidedly ... READ MORE >
Hot inflation data dims prospects for a Fed rate cut in June
The U.S. consumer price index came in above expectations for March, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position as it seeks to starting cutting interest rates this year. Both overall and core inflation remained unchanged at 0.4% monthly, the third consecutive month that the overall CPI ... READ MORE >
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing
Improved financial conditions, a dynamic labor market and wage growth that is exceeding inflation all should bolster corporate earnings this year in the United States. Most important, with productivity improving, the potential for greater corporate profits and rising margins will be a theme in ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada preview: A dovish tone with rate cuts on horizon
The Bank of Canada will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged when it meets this week, but the tone of its statement will shift to dovish as bank officials recognize easing inflation, the slowing labour market and stagnant growth. We expect that the central bank's first rate cut will occur ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate surpasses 6% for the first time in over two years
To see why rate cuts are coming in Canada, look no further than the March job report. The unemployment rate reached 6.1%, surpassing 6% for the first time in over two years, according to Statistics Canada on Friday. While Canada has added more than 300,000 jobs over the past year, including a loss of ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
While it’s always good to identify risks to the economic outlook, too often market players mistake the condition of a few trees—there are always isolated problems—with the health of the forest. The March jobs report shows just how healthy the American labor market is, despite isolated criticisms. ... READ MORE >