While the job openings data released on Wednesday continued to show a tight labor market in January, it remained on a downward trend toward normalization. Job openings cooled in back-to-back months to 8.86 million in January with December's figure revised down to 8.89 million from 9.03 million ... READ MORE >
interest rates
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend
The Federal Reserve's closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3% on the month and by 2.4% from a year ago. We are not too worried about the strong inflation print because of all the seasonal factors involved. ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation excluding shelter hit target in January
Canada's consumer price index report for January brought good news for consumers, businesses and the Bank of Canada alike. CPI dropped to 2.9%, led by lower year-over-year figures in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, prices stayed flat. Consumers breathed a sigh of relief as grocery prices grew ... READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. The focus of this new uncertainty centers on the energy markets, which have been roiled by ... READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The inflation shock of the past three years is abating. One reason is that expectations of inflation continue to remain remarkably well anchored. The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate-—a closely watched measure of pricing expectations—stands at 2.3%, which is below the ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales fall in January as holiday hangover sets in
In a break from recent years, American consumers began the year on a weak note as retail sales dropped by 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, according to Census Bureau data released on Thursday. That drop was the first time since 2018 that sales at retail stores, online and food service places ... READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
Energy and goods disinflation continue to underscore slower growth in the U.S. Consumer Price index, which increased by 0.3% on the month and by 3.1% on an annual basis, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. Disinflation in the energy and the goods sectors has now resulted in a ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market exceeded expectations in January, adding 37,000 jobs
The Canadian economy refuses to go down without a fight. Nearly two years into a cycle of steep interest rate increases and after half a year with the policy rate at 5%, the economy added 37,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate fell for the first time in over a ... READ MORE >
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
The recent easing in inflation, a clear downward trend in rents and what we think is a budding productivity boom have led us to revise our inflation forecast for the year. We now expect that the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—the personal consumption expenditures price index—will ... READ MORE >
Canada financial conditions update: Stabilization and recovery
Canada’s financial conditions remain underwater for now, signaling slow growth in the first and second quarters of the year after a contraction last year in the third and fourth quarters. As the Bank of Canada said in its December policy statement, higher interest rates are restraining spending. ... READ MORE >