The worst of monetary tightening for the financial market may be behind us, according to the latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released by the Federal Reserve on Monday. All indicators have shown significant improvement since the Fed ended its rate hike campaign. Lending standards ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Service sector grows faster than expected in January
The service sector continued its impressive expansion in January, growing for 43 of the past 44 months, according to the data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. The overall index posted an upside surprise, rising to 53.4% from 50.5%. Anything above 49% generally indicates an ... READ MORE >
Hiring accelerates in January as unemployment remains below 4%
Remarkable, resilient and robust. There is simply no other way to describe the sustained strength in the U.S. labor market that has resulted in an American unemployment rate below 4% for 24 consecutive months for the first time since 1967. The U.S. economy created 353,000 new jobs in January on the ... READ MORE >
Productivity continues to rise in potential game changer for economy
Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate in economics, once said that “productivity is not everything, but in the long run it’s almost everything.” The increase in American productivity over the past year, if sustained, is a potential game changer for the economy that represents that mythical rising tide ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left is its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintained the pace of quantitative tightening. The committee, however, made major changes to the policy statement that implies a coming upward revision in its economic forecast and a shift ... READ MORE >
Canadian economy grew more than expected in November
The Canadian economy expanded in November by 0.2% on a month-over-month basis, slightly exceeding expectations after staying flat for three months. The goods-producing industries were responsible for most of the expansion, growing by 0.6%, the highest rate since January last year. Meanwhile, the ... READ MORE >
The Fed’s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Fed's key metric for wage growth that accounts for labor composition—slowed to the lowest level since June 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. The overall index eased to 0.9% in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 1.1% ... READ MORE >
Strong job openings and consumer confidence point to robust employment gains
December's strong data on job openings and consumer confidence released on Tuesday foreshadowed another robust month of job gains in January, aligning with our above-consensus estimate for net payroll increases when the employment report is released on Friday. Job openings in the United States inched ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening. The hold in the policy rate should be understood as the Federal Reserve again signaling that it considers rates sufficiently restrictive to bring down ... READ MORE >
Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target
Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains. While both top-line and core inflation are rapidly advancing toward the Fed’s target, inflation-adjusted ... READ MORE >