The U.S. economy expanded at a robust 3.1% pace from a year ago and closed the year with a booming 3.3% rate of expansion on the quarter, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. The strong gains were driven by household consumption, gross private investment and government spending ... READ MORE >
interest rates
The case for the Bank of Canada to accelerate rate cuts
With restrictive financial conditions, high interest rates and still-elevated inflation, the Canadian economy has come to a standstill and is now at a tipping point. The Bank of Canada’s decisions over the next few months could influence whether the economy arrives at a soft landing or falls into a ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 5% amid weak growth
As expected, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday maintained its policy rate at 5 per cent and continued its restrictive monetary policies. At the same time, though, its public statements signed a more dovish tone. In softening its rhetoric, the central bank noted the slowdown in the global and domestic ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises above expectations in January
Consumer sentiment rose in January to the highest level since August 2021 as inflation concerns eased. American consumers showed more confidence in the economy, both now and in the future, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. The overall index increased to 78.8 from 69.7, much higher than ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims and housing starts post upside surprises
Filings for jobless benefits fell last week to their lowest level in 16 months, a testament for how resilient the labor market continues to be. Initial claims declined to 187,000 from 203,000 in the previous week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. That was much lower than the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation accelerated to 3.4% in December
December’s Consumer Price Index report for Canada is another bump in the road in the path toward price stability. The overall index rose by 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, up from 3.1% in November, primarily because of the base effect, or comparisons to a year ago. Prices dropped from ... READ MORE >
December CPI: Sticky service and housing prices illustrate the difficult last mile in inflation fight
The December Consumer Price Index captures both the broader disinflation taking place inside the goods sector and the persistent inflation inside the service sector. Each generates its own economic and policy narratives that carry implications for the economy in a year of a closely fought ... READ MORE >
Rate normalization and the return of risk
Financial markets had a difficult start to the year after an exuberant end to last year. The yield on 10-year Treasury bills dropped from 5.0% to 3.8% to end the year as investors priced in an early start for monetary policy easing. Now, as the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, we think conditions ... READ MORE >
Canada failed to add jobs in December
The Canadian economy is slipping into no-growth territory. In December, Canada lost 23,500 full-time jobs, replaced by a gain of 23,600 part-time positions. Still, the mixed signals that dominated the latter half of last year have not given way to more unanimous signs of a stalling economy. The ... READ MORE >
December employment report caps an extraordinary year of 2.7 million jobs added
The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs in December, closing out an extraordinary year that saw an increase of 2.7 million in total employment and a record 167 million Americans employed. During the past year, the unemployment rate averaged 3.6% and closed the year at 3.7% in the best year for labor ... READ MORE >