Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Canada’s unemployment rises to 5.8%, adding to case for rate cuts
Canada added 25,000 jobs in November as its unemployment rate climbed to 5.8%, its highest level since January 2022, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. Together with the weak third-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday, November’s jobs data adds more evidence to the argument for the Bank ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy contracted more than expected, suggesting a pivot on rates
Canada’s economy contracted more than expected in the third quarter, suggesting that the Bank of Canada might soon pivot to cutting rates, as early as April, to avoid a deeper recession than needed. Canada’s gross domestic product declined by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter and by 1.1 per cent on an ... READ MORE >
Inflation slows again, pointing to another rate pause
Inflation in October fell to its slowest pace in more than a year, solidifying the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its next meeting in two weeks. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation metric, was unchanged on the month, ... READ MORE >
Durable goods and jobless claims offer a mixed picture of the economy
The impact of elevated interest rates continued to show up in the business equipment spending data, which came in lower than expected in the Commerce Department's data released on Wednesday. Overall orders for durable goods fell by 5.4% in October, led by a 49.6% decline in nondefense aircraft because ... READ MORE >
Canada sees disinflation as gasoline prices ease
Canada’s consumer price index in October speaks loud and clear: Disinflation is here, and no more rate hikes by the Bank of Canada are needed. Inflation fell to 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, according to Statistics Canada on Tuesday. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.1%. The plunge is largely ... READ MORE >
U.S. existing home sales plunged to their lowest level since 2010
Sales of existing homes in the United States extended their slump for the fifth consecutive month, primarily because of elevated mortgage rates that have dampened both demand and supply. Read more of RSM's insights on real estate and the middle market. In October, sales of existing homes dropped to ... READ MORE >
Industrial production posts biggest drop this year amid strikes
Industrial production dropped by more than expected in October as the United Auto Workers strike was felt in the economy. Production of motor vehicle parts fell by 10%, marking the biggest drop since the beginning of the pandemic. The industrial production index declined by 0.6% on the month, according ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fall in October
Government data for October's retail sales and producer inflation has raised the probability of a soft landing by a significant margin. While sales slowed, the data came in higher than expected. When considered with an upward revision to September's reading, October's retail sales indicated ... READ MORE >
U.S. October consumer price index: Further evidence of disinflation
If one was looking for evidence of a soft landing and a sustained economic expansion, look no further than the October consumer price index. Disinflation inside the October consumer price index caused by falling commodity, oil and gasoline prices resulted in no increase in inflation on the month ... READ MORE >