The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 per cent within the ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
Canada added 51,000 jobs in November, double the expected number, but the overall picture does not look rosy. The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017 — as more people looked for work. A slow job market finally hit wages, as wage growth ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Will wage growth moderate?
A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. We expect a net change in total employment of 220,000 positions, a 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. Solid job growth in ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.20%, which was the RSM year-end target, and has averaged 4.18% for the year through Dec. 3. And the yields are set to go higher. An economy with growth that could approach 3% with full employment, coupled with expectations of expansionary fiscal ... READ MORE >
October job openings surge as labor market shows resilience
The sharp increase in job openings in October reaffirmed our call that the weaknesses of recent months were short-lived. Most of the gains in vacancies came from the South, which was hit by Hurricane Milton. Total job openings in October rose to 7.74 million from 7.37 million, the Bureau of Labor ... READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
A robust 0.4% increase in personal spending and a 0.6% increase in personal income in October underscore just how strong the economy and households have been ahead of the critical holiday spending season. But at the same time, the strong spending and income data, released on Wednesday by the Commerce ... READ MORE >
Year ahead in Canada: Return to growth as rate cuts take hold
Price stability will fuel economic expansion in 2025 as the Bank of Canada reduces interest rates to a low of 2.75 per cent within the first half of the year. The rate cuts will encourage investment and risk-taking, reduce financing costs on Canada’s elevated debt and put more cash in consumers’ ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall in October as hurricanes take a toll
Housing starts and building permits in the United States fell in October for the second straight month largely because of the two hurricanes in the South and the recent rebound in mortgage rates. Housing starts, a key indicator of residential real estate performance within gross domestic product, ... READ MORE >
Canada’s prices for services and shelter decelerated in October
Canada’s consumer price index accelerated in October, but that increase will not deter a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December, though the size of the cut is up for debate. Canada’s CPI accelerated to 2.0 per cent, up from 1.6 per cent in September, because of a smaller decline in gasoline prices ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decelerated in October
Retail sales growth was softer in October, following a stronger-than-expected September report, which had sharp upward revisions, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. The mixed results should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. That probability has ... READ MORE >