The drop in job openings and the rebound in consumer confidence are consistent with a soft-landing scenario, which we believe has been the reality in recent months. While the lower number of job vacancies signaled reduced demand pressure in September, hirings improved while job quits continued to ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Financial conditions improve in Canada and U.S., setting stage for growth
Financial conditions continue to improve both in Canada and in the United States, signaling stability in markets and setting the groundwork for economic growth. RSM's proprietary financial conditions indexes are based on the level of risk or accommodation in four asset markets: stocks, money markets, ... READ MORE >
October jobs report will be distorted by hurricane and strike
We expect that Hurricane Helene and labor action at Boeing will distort the jobs data for October. The employment report, which will be released on Nov. 1, will most likely be the first of two reports that will understate the true condition of the American labor market. Read more of RSM's insights ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall despite hurricane’s impact
The fall in initial jobless claims last week aligns with a strong labor market, despite the recent impact of Hurricane Milton. Total initial claims dropped to 227,000 from 242,000 for the week ending Oct. 18, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Florida’s new filings for claims spiked last week, ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts rates by half point amid slow growth
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent on Wednesday as growth replaces inflation as the central bank's primary economic concern. After five consecutive quarters of declining per-capita gross domestic product growth, Canada’s sluggish economy suggests that the ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits ease in September
Housing starts and building permits pulled back in September after a red-hot August, suggesting that the road to a housing market rebound won’t be smooth, even as interest rates drop. The market remains demand-driven, with the current and future supply of new homes staying below the threshold for a ... READ MORE >
September retail sales top forecasts
American consumers remained upbeat about the economy in September as spending at retail stores and online exceeded consensus forecasts. Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. Our forecasts had called for a 0.5% increase for both numbers, so the ... READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
One of the more underdiscussed economic developments following the shocks of the pandemic has been the outperformance of the United States economy compared with its G-7 peers. Over the past eight quarters, the American economy has grown at a 2.9% annualized pace and is on track to grow at or above ... READ MORE >
Canadian firms in an era of a higher cost of capital
Even with the recent uptick in hiring, the Canadian economy remains in a slump, with sparse activity in the financial markets, slow hiring and lackluster investments. In response, the Bank of Canada is cutting interest rates—three times since June, with more reductions on the way. It’s only a ... READ MORE >
Canada added 47,000 jobs in September as jobless rate fell to 6.5%
Canada's economy showed resilience in September, adding 47,000 jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent—the first drop since January. The increase in jobs, the largest since April, gives confidence that Canada can maintain a soft landing until the Bank of Canada's rate cuts, which began in ... READ MORE >