As Canada grapples with an acute shortage of housing, some residents are embracing a shift toward multigenerational residences. This phenomenon, which includes multiple generations of adults living under one roof, is being driven in no small part by necessity as younger buyers and new arrivals to ... READ MORE >
interest rates
The great rate reset: The end of easy money, rising yields and the onset of a new era
In the Federal Reserve’s September Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers indicated that the long-run neutral federal funds rate, or what economists refer to as r-star, has moved higher toward 3%. The implied logic of that forecast has prompted investors and market participants to reset ... READ MORE >
Blowout employment report is a win for the American real economy
The U.S. September employment report, with a surprising gain of 336,000 jobs, surely exaggerates the true underlying pace of hiring that remains quite strong but not at the robust levels implied by the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate released on Friday. Once one considers the upward ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims tick up in a still-tight labor market
Initial claims inched up last week as the impact of the United Auto Workers strike remained muted. New filings increased by 2,000 to 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, lower than the median forecasts of 210,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That continued to suggest a ... READ MORE >
Chart of the Day: Falling oil and gas demand implies inflation relief
Easing demand for oil and gasoline should provide relief in top-line inflation in October and November. Falling wholesale gasoline prices imply a decline of 12% in retail gasoline prices in the coming weeks from its current level of $3.79 to roughly $3.34 per gallon. This is consistent with the ... READ MORE >
Job openings surge unexpectedly in August
Job openings defied expectations in August, rising to 9.6 million, mostly from a sharp increase of 409,000 in professional and business services, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the increase in labor demand was an encouraging sign for the labor market, we ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy was unchanged in July
Canada’s gross domestic product in July remained unchanged, adding to the prospect that the economy can achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession. The data released by Statistics Canada on Friday offered a picture of an economy holding its own even as it cools. Services-producing industries grew by ... READ MORE >
American consumers remain resilient as shutdown looms
Despite a rise in overall inflation because of higher oil prices, core inflation and spending volume were softer in August, adding to the optimism projected by the Federal Reserve recently that the economy can achieve a soft landing. The personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed's preferred ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims hold steady as pending home sales plunge
The labor market continued to show resilience even as higher interest rates took a further toll on pending home sales. Initial jobless claims inched up by only 2,000 last week to 204,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average, while pending home sales plunged by 7.1% in August after July's number ... READ MORE >
Housing prices set a record as consumer confidence dips
Economic data released on Tuesday added more mixed signals on the housing market in the wake of the wide fluctuations in mortgage rates over the past two months. At the same time, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in four months as expectations markedly deteriorated. To begin with, housing ... READ MORE >