The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >
interest rates
U.S. retail sales fall in January as holiday hangover sets in
In a break from recent years, ,American consumers began the year on a weak note as retail sales fell 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, according to Census Bureau data. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market exceeded expectations in January, adding 37,000 jobs
Nearly two years into a cycle of steep interest rate increases and after half a year with the policy rate at 5%, the economy added 37,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations. … READ MORE >
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each. … READ MORE >
Canada financial conditions update: Stabilization and recovery
Canada’s financial conditions remain underwater for now, signaling slow growth in the first and second quarters of the year after a contraction last year in the third and fourth quarters. … READ MORE >
Fed survey shows further improvement in financial conditions
The worst of monetary tightening for the financial market may be behind us, according to the latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released by the Federal Reserve … READ MORE >
Service sector grows faster than expected in January
The ISM service data is another reason to believe the Federal Reserve should not rush cutting rates this year. … READ MORE >
Hiring accelerates in January as unemployment remains below 4%
The U.S. economy created 353,000 new jobs in January on the back of an upward revision to 333,000 from 216,000 in December. … READ MORE >
Productivity continues to rise in potential game changer for economy
The increase in productivity has most likely been a catalyst for both robust economic growth and disinflation over the past year. … READ MORE >