Job openings cooled in back-to-back months to 8.86 million in January with December’s figure revised down to 8.89 million from 9.03 million previously, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
interest rates
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend
The Federal Reserve’s closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3% on the month and by 2.4% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation excluding shelter hit target in January
Canada’s consumer price index dropped to 2.9% in January, led by lower year-over-year figures in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, prices stayed flat. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales fall in January as holiday hangover sets in
In a break from recent years, ,American consumers began the year on a weak note as retail sales fell 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, according to Census Bureau data. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market exceeded expectations in January, adding 37,000 jobs
Nearly two years into a cycle of steep interest rate increases and after half a year with the policy rate at 5%, the economy added 37,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations. … READ MORE >
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each. … READ MORE >
Canada financial conditions update: Stabilization and recovery
Canada’s financial conditions remain underwater for now, signaling slow growth in the first and second quarters of the year after a contraction last year in the third and fourth quarters. … READ MORE >