Even though the number of jobs overall in Canada was little changed as the economy lost 6,000 positions in July, the labour market is showing signs of losing momentum. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 5.5%, the third consecutive increase for the first time since March 2020, the onset of the ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Fed survey of loan officers shows rising impact of higher interest rates
The Federal Reserve’s latest survey of bank loan officers confirms that the dampening effect of monetary-policy tightening on borrowing and lending continued in the second quarter. This implies that the residual impact of interest rate increases and the banking turmoil that engulfed local and regional ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: A continued decline in July
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index moved sideways in July as manufacturing firms in four of the five Federal Reserve regions again reported outright declines in activity as well as declines in new orders. Only the New York region reported increased activity and a rise in new orders, and ... READ MORE >
New data points to further economic slowdown and disinflation
Economic data released on Tuesday suggested that the economy is continuing to slow as the labor market loosened, price gains eased and manufacturing contracted in June and July. Indicators came in lower than expected, implying that while the economy has remained resilient, it has lost some ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
Having weathered turmoil in the banking sector and the standoff over the debt ceiling, financial conditions in the United States are easing, moving toward levels of risk normally priced into financial assets. But while signals from the equity market are positive, the bond market continues to ... READ MORE >
Resilience defined as American economy continues to defy expectations
Looking for a working definition of resilience? Take a look at the American economy, which expanded at a 2.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter (2.6% on a year-ago basis). Driving that growth was a durable American household, which boosted consumption by 1.6% between ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: The time for an end to rate hikes has arrived
The Federal Open Market Committee increased its policy rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. While the September, November and December meetings remain live options for more rate increases, we think that Wednesday’s hike is the final step in a two-year effort to ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits drop in June as rates surge
Housing starts and permits dropped in June after surging in May amid market volatility because of interest rate increases. New residential starts fell by 8% on the month, while permits for new buildings declined by 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. The drop came as mortgage ... READ MORE >
U.S. second-half economic outlook: Muddling through
The resilient American economy refuses to go gentle into that good night. The evidence is growing stronger: A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates. That reality, reflected by what looks to be ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment highest in nearly two years
Consumer sentiment jumped to its highest level since September 2021 on the heels of continuing disinflation and an improved view of household finances, according to the University of Michigan's survey on Friday. The top-line sentiment index increased to 72.6 in July, from 64.4 ... READ MORE >