Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% for the week ending May 6, to 264,000, the most since 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The rise came as the Labor Department also reported the producer prices bounced back in April, in part because of favorable comparisons to surging prices of ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Inflation remains sticky in April, rising by 4.9% over a year ago
Strong demand for transportation and gasoline in April bolstered by rising incomes and excess savings showed that inflation, while easing, is likely to remain sticky for the foreseeable future despite falling to 4.9% in April from 9.1% last June. April’s increase in the consumer price index ... READ MORE >
Fed survey shows a notable decline in loan demand
Further evidence of tightened lending conditions and a potential credit crunch can be seen in the notable decline in demand for credit by large and middle market firms, a new survey of loan officers from the Federal Reserve shows. This decline will affect the real economy in the near term ... READ MORE >
Canada added 41,400 jobs in April amid resilient labor market
Canada’s labor market remained resilient in April despite increasing recession fears. All key numbers released by Statistics Canada on Friday came in stronger than expected—maybe too strong for the Bank of Canada’s comfort as it tries to tame inflation. The jobs report should raise the chance of a rate ... READ MORE >
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the ... READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate for the tenth consecutive time on Wednesday, pushing the federal funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at ... READ MORE >
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
As the Bank of Canada tries to tame inflation and simultaneously guide the economy to a soft landing, most market participants are skeptical that it can pull off the feat. After months of steep interest rate increases, the higher borrowing costs are only beginning to be felt in Canada's real ... READ MORE >
Tighter financial conditions threaten Canada’s growth
After two years of whipsaw change, Canada’s financial and commodity markets have entered a period of relative calm in recent months. Volatility in the stock market has eased, oil prices have declined and prices of raw materials have largely held steady. Even the elevated volatility in the bond ... READ MORE >
Fed’s gauges on wages and inflation seal the deal on another rate hike
The Federal Reserve's key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected Friday, helping to seal the deal on the central bank's 10th consecutive rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. The Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% in the quarter, and the ... READ MORE >
U.S. growth slows to 1.1% as businesses pull back
Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction—a net drag of 2.26%—and a large pullback in business investment—a net drag of 2.34%—offset the robust 3.7% increase in overall household consumption. This data, ... READ MORE >