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interest rates
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. Still, looking underneath the top-line numbers and through seasonal fluctuations, spending at retail stores remained solid. Wednesday’s ... READ MORE >
Fed launches $25 billion lending program to prevent bank run
The Federal Reserve, Treasury Department and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took decisive action Sunday to stem what was clearly a potential bank run. The $25 billion Bank Term Funding Program, announced Sunday night, was necessary to prevent a much larger crisis that would spread ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job gains came in hotter than expected as wage growth spiked
February's jobs data in Canada showed a still-strong labor market that did not offer any relief in terms of keeping inflation under control. The net change in total employment dropped to 21,800 from a whopping 150,000 increase in January yet remained above the expectations of only ... READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
If one wanted to create a confluence of cross-currents that make the job of policymakers more difficult, one might choose the combination of a red-hot economy, robust job gains, elevated inflation and an estimated $620 billion in potentially unrealized losses inside the banking ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens as market sees a hard landing
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral from 0.4 previously as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. Markets are moving to price in a hard landing around a ... READ MORE >
February’s jobs report is likely to generate more questions than answers
The February jobs report will most likely provide another questionable estimate of labor conditions in the American economy, overstating the pace of hiring in the private sector. We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the data is released on Friday, with many of the gains ... READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment rose in January
Investments in business equipment posted a sharp rebound in January after two consecutive months of disappointing declines. While the Commerce Department’s data released on Monday showed some resilience from private businesses, there were reasons to be cautious because January’s data can be ... READ MORE >
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
In the first weeks of the year, financial markets have gone from anticipating a near-term end to the Federal Reserve’s price stability program to the realization that the Fed is not yet done. The S&P 500 increased by 9.3% through Feb. 2 as part of this broad expectation that the Fed would pause its ... READ MORE >
RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
The common thread between the inflation reports for January was a reacceleration in service-based inflation that is proving sticky and is not likely to abate enough for the Federal Reserve to pull back on interest rate increases. For this reason, we are changing our call on the path of monetary ... READ MORE >