While we expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, what its updated Summary of Economic Projections will look like remains less clear. … READ MORE >
interest rates
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than expected, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. … READ MORE >
Energy pushes inflation higher but core prices remain grounded
Consumer inflation in August posted the biggest monthly increase in more than a year, driven mostly by the surge in oil and energy prices. … READ MORE >
Why the Fed should lift its 2% inflation target
We expect the Fed to hold its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.5% at its meeting next week and would advise the Fed to begin shaping expectations about a likely cyclical peak at that range. … READ MORE >
As financing costs surge, the real economy faces a reckoning: Rising loan costs are squeezing middle market firms
As the era of easy money and low-cost financing ends, middle market businesses are facing a reckoning.
Rising real interest rates are pushing up the cost of commercial and industrial loans, making it harder for these firms to meet payrolls and finance their expansion, according to a new survey from RSM US LLP. The result is a risk to economic growth across the real economy and, potentially, a recession. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level in seven months
Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000 last week, the fewest since February, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds rates steady amid a cooling economy
The central bank’s decision to keep rates steady also suggested that its campaign of rate increases might be over, rendering a rate peak of 5%. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions and the cost of doing business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley on Monday, Sept. 25, at 1 p.m. eastern for a wide-ranging conversation on America’s real economy. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economy contracts as higher interest rates take a toll
Gross domestic product fell by 0.2% in the second quarter, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday. On a monthly basis, GDP fell by 0.2% in June after a 0.2% increase in May. … READ MORE >