While the top-line number came out lower than expected, spending on retail goods continued to show an underlying strength in April. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Consumer sentiment drops as inflation expectations rise
The report showed a marked increase in long-term inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years, rising to 3.2% from 3.0% to reach the highest level since 2011. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer inflation show mixed results
Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% last week to 264,000, the most since 2021 as producer prices rebounded in April, largely because of comparisons to the surging prices a year ago. … READ MORE >
Inflation remains sticky in April, rising by 4.9% over a year ago
April’s increase in the consumer price index was in line with RSM’s forecast of a 4.9% gain and the consensus estimate of 5%, and will most likely support the doves at the Federal Reserve who want to pause interest rate increases. … READ MORE >
Fed survey shows a notable decline in loan demand
Roughly 56% of loan officers noted a decline in demand for loans by large and middle market firms, while 53% reported a decline in credit demand by small firms, according to the Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released Monday. … READ MORE >
Canada added 41,400 jobs in April amid resilient labor market
The strong jobs report should get the attention of the Bank of Canada as it weighs its next move in June. … READ MORE >
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the … … READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at the Fed’s next meeting in June. … READ MORE >
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
A recession, albeit mild and brief, is most likely on the horizon. Our forecast puts the chance of a recession at 60% by the middle of the year, with the downturn hitting the economy unevenly. … READ MORE >
Tighter financial conditions threaten Canada’s growth
The RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index remains at 1.4 standard deviations below normal, indicating that greater risk than normal is being priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >