New filings for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly last week despite the impact of Hurricane Ian in Florida. New claims fell by 5.3% to 214,000, below the pre-pandemic average in 2019 as layoffs remain historically low, according to government data released Thursday. In the bigger context, new ... READ MORE >
interest rates
U.S. housing starts continue to fall amid rate hikes
New housing starts fell by 8.1% in September as the impact of rising mortgage rates worked through the housing market, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. There were 1.4 million housing starts on an annualized basis in September, significantly lower than the 1.7 million that we see as needed to ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation refuses to cool
September’s consumer price index for Canada put out any hope that inflation will get back under control anytime soon and only added pressure on the Bank of Canada to maintain its aggressive interest rate hikes. Canada’s CPI rose by 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, slightly down from 7% in August, ... READ MORE >
End of an era? Bond market selloff prompts a new regime
The dramatic fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic has elicited a structural break in globalization, growth and liquidity regimes that have driven the world's economies over the past 25 years. Gone is the hyper-globalization that was the primary driver of low inflation and low interest ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises despite worsening inflation expectations
U.S. consumer sentiment rose for the fifth straight month to 59.8 in October but a worsening inflation outlook clouded the otherwise positive news, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. Solid income growth in a tight labor market is keeping household financial conditions strong as sentiment ... READ MORE >
Inflation remains hot, sticky and elevated, implying another supersized rate hike
Both top-line and core inflation remain hot, sticky and elevated, which implies that the path of monetary policy demands another supersized rate increase of 75 basis points at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting. The September Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% on the month and was up by 8.2% on ... READ MORE >
Producer prices rebound, keeping pressure on Fed to raise rates
The Producer Price Index rose by 0.4% in September after falling for two straight months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday. The series has been closely watched recently as an additional gauge for inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the producer inflation rate was 8.5%, which will ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market shows little sign of slowing
Canada’s economy in September reversed the slowing labour market of the summer, adding 21,100 jobs while unemployment fell to 5.2%, according to government data released Friday. Employment among women in their prime working age grew for the first time since May as children headed back to school, ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Hiring slows as another 75-basis-point rate increase looms
The U.S. economy is proving far more resilient in the face of sustained pricing pressures than otherwise thought a short time ago. The economy added 263,000 jobs in September, slower than the 315,000 jobs in August but still a sign of a resilient labor market, according to Labor Department data ... READ MORE >
Job openings fall as rate hikes take effect
In a sign that the chronically tight labor market may be easing, job openings plunged in August amid a slowdown in overall demand. That decline should come as an encouraging sign for the Federal Reserve, which has been targeting excess labor demand with aggressive interest rate hikes as it tries to ... READ MORE >