The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at the Fed’s next meeting in June. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
A recession, albeit mild and brief, is most likely on the horizon. Our forecast puts the chance of a recession at 60% by the middle of the year, with the downturn hitting the economy unevenly. … READ MORE >
Tighter financial conditions threaten Canada’s growth
The RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index remains at 1.4 standard deviations below normal, indicating that greater risk than normal is being priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
Fed’s gauges on wages and inflation seal the deal on another rate hike
The Federal Reserve’s key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected, helping to seal the deal on another rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. … READ MORE >
U.S. growth slows to 1.1% as businesses pull back
Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction and a large pullback in business investment offset the increase in household consumption. … READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise amid labor market slowdowns
New claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, increased by 2.1% to 245,000 for the week ending April 15—about 12.9% higher than a year ago. … READ MORE >
Canadian inflation fell to lowest since August 2021
Canada’s inflation rate dropped to 4.3% in March on an annual basis from 5.4% in the prior month, driven largely by comparisons to the surging energy and food prices of a year ago. … READ MORE >
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
For the Federal Reserve, the new data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. … READ MORE >