New claims for unemployment benefits fell by a sharp 16,000 last week to 193,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the fewest since April and well below the market's forecast, according to government data released Thursday. The decline comes amid a debate over how many jobs will be sacrificed to tame ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Pending home sales fall to their lowest level since April 2020
Pending home sales in the United States fell by 2% in August, the third straight monthly decline amid a steep rise in mortgage rates, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. On a year-ago basis, pending sales fell by a whopping 22.6%, continuing to signal more room ... READ MORE >
Confusion has its cost: RSM UK Financial Conditions Index shows growing drag
The Bank of England announced on Wednesday that it would temporarily step in to purchase long-dated bonds to tamp down disorderly market conditions that have prevailed since the Truss government announced its plan to cut taxes. The £45 billion ($50 billion) plan comes on top of the government’s ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence and core investment grow despite recession fear
American consumers and private businesses showed improved confidence in the economy despite recession concerns, according to economic data released on Tuesday. The data reaffirmed our forecast of a solid economic rebound toward the end of the year, pushing our recession call to next year. The ... READ MORE >
Amid global economic turmoil, stress grips fixed-income markets
Regime change in the global financial markets and the international economy is in play. Investor and policy expectations around globalization, growth and liquidity are all rapidly changing as central banks lift interest rates to put inflation back in the box. It is highly likely that the American ... READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points and sees more increases
In the face of growing pressure from policymakers and investors to pause, pivot or even cut its policy rate, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday demonstrated why its independence is the sine qua non of monetary policy. The Fed raised its policy rate by three quarters of a percentage point, to a range of ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation declines amid cooling gas prices
Inflation declined by 0.3% in August for the second monthly decline in a row thanks to cooling gasoline and energy prices, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. The consumer price index rose by 7.0% in August on a year-over-year basis, down from a 7.6% gain in July. The easing ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises to highest level since May
Consumer sentiment improved in September as inflation concerns eased, according to the University of Michigan's index released on Friday. The index rose to 59.5 in September, the highest since May. Still, consumers remain pessimistic compared to before the pandemic, when the long-term average was above ... READ MORE >
Canada housing starts fall amid rising rates
Canada’s housing starts fell to 267,443 in August, a 3% drop from July, continuing the decline in the housing sector because of rising interest rates, according to data released on Friday by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The drop, which stemmed entirely from starts of multiunit ... READ MORE >
U.S. August CPI: Core inflation arrives hot even as gas prices fall
Premature calls for the Federal Reserve to pause or pivot on its campaign to tame inflation should be politely dismissed given the 0.1% increase in top-line inflation in August. That gain translates into a 8.3% year-over-year increase in the headline number, according to government data released ... READ MORE >