Under our base case, a loss of 2.5 million jobs is consistent with a 5.1% unemployment rate, 3% inflation and a likely recession under current economic conditions. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Jobless claims and housing starts come in hotter than expected
Jobless claims and housing starts blew past forecasts in the most recent reports released Thursday, both showing stronger-than-expected results amid a looming economic downturn. … READ MORE >
It’s a matter of trust: Financial conditions tighten on stability risks
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index sits at 1.4 standard deviations below neutral, indicating increases in volatility and risk priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. … READ MORE >
Fed launches $25 billion lending program to prevent bank run
The $25 billion Bank Term Funding Program was necessary to prevent a much larger crisis that would spread through the financial channel to the real economy and almost certainly tip the economy into recession. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job gains came in hotter than expected as wage growth spiked
The net change in Canada’s total employment dropped to 21,800 from a whopping 150,000 increase in January yet remained above the expectations of only 10,000. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
February showed a 311,000 net change in total employment amid a 3.6% unemployment rate and 4.6% increase in average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens as market sees a hard landing
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
February’s jobs report is likely to generate more questions than answers
We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the jobs data for February is released on Friday, with many of the gains attributable to seasonal fluctuations in hiring. … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment rose in January
Investments in business equipment posted a sharp rebound in January after two consecutive months of disappointing declines. … READ MORE >