Should the crisis deteriorate further, with more bank seizures and further problems inside systemically financially important institutions, then the degree of financial shock is equivalent to 150 basis points of tightening. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Consumer sentiment fell in March, before the financial turmoil
Consumer sentiment for March dropped to 63.4 from 67 as consumers’ confidence in the current economic conditions and their expectations both worsened on the month, though the survey results did not reflect the recent turmoil in financial markets … READ MORE >
The great deposit migration and emergency borrowing at the Fed discount window
In the past week alone, the Federal Reserve’s loans outstanding to the financial system have ballooned to about $318 billion, up from $15 billion a week ago. … READ MORE >
How many jobs need to be sacrificed to tame inflation? Cost is rising, RSM models show.
Under our base case, a loss of 2.5 million jobs is consistent with a 5.1% unemployment rate, 3% inflation and a likely recession under current economic conditions. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims and housing starts come in hotter than expected
Jobless claims and housing starts blew past forecasts in the most recent reports released Thursday, both showing stronger-than-expected results amid a looming economic downturn. … READ MORE >
It’s a matter of trust: Financial conditions tighten on stability risks
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index sits at 1.4 standard deviations below neutral, indicating increases in volatility and risk priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. … READ MORE >
Fed launches $25 billion lending program to prevent bank run
The $25 billion Bank Term Funding Program was necessary to prevent a much larger crisis that would spread through the financial channel to the real economy and almost certainly tip the economy into recession. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job gains came in hotter than expected as wage growth spiked
The net change in Canada’s total employment dropped to 21,800 from a whopping 150,000 increase in January yet remained above the expectations of only 10,000. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
February showed a 311,000 net change in total employment amid a 3.6% unemployment rate and 4.6% increase in average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >