Consumer sentiment bounced off a historical low to 51.1 in July from 50.0 in June as gasoline prices eased markedly. That resulted in lower readings for inflation expectations for both the short-term one-year outlook and the long-term five- to 10-year expectations, according to survey data released by ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Latest jobless claims and producer inflation show upside surprises
New filings for jobless benefits last week rose by 3.8% to 244,000—the highest level since November, according to government data released Thursday. The steady increase in new jobless claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, were in line with hiring freezes and layoff announcements coming from the ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada raises its policy rate by 1% to tame inflation
The Bank of Canada announced a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, the largest increase since 1998, in an attempt to restore price stability amid rising inflation expectations and wage growth. The announcement brought the policy rate to 2.5%. We now expect a 75 basis-point hike at the September ... READ MORE >
U.S. June CPI: Persistent top-line inflation hits 9.1%
The past few years have been characterized by a series of economic shocks that have wreaked havoc with just about every area of the American economy. The most recent set of energy shocks has sent the top-line consumer price index to 9.1%, a four decade high, on the back of an 11.2% increase in ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report for June indicates no recession now
An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs in any given month, as the June employment report showed on Friday. The data released by the Labor Department strongly implied that the economy is not in recession, which is in line with our base case that the economy will ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain above pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless claims exceeded the pre-pandemic level for the third week in a row as labor demand eased while more stories of companies laying off workers made headlines. New claims inched down by only 0.9% last week, to 229,000, from an upwardly revised 231,000 in the prior week, according to ... READ MORE >
As rates rise, Canada’s construction industry enters a new phase
In response to rising inflation, the Bank of Canada began a series of aggressive rate hikes this year, bringing its policy rate from an effective lower bound of 0.25% to 1.5% in June. One of the industries hit hardest by rising interest rates has been construction, and this slowdown now threatens to ... READ MORE >
Midyear update: An economy on knife’s edge as inflation bites
Gradually, then suddenly: That is how Mike Campbell, a character in Ernest Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises,” answered the question on how he went bankrupt. It’s also an apt way to think about how the United States goes into a recession. While there are always signs of financial stress and ... READ MORE >
Changes in Fed policy and their impact on the economy
After more than a decade of disinflation and the threat of deflation, the Federal Reserve is now dealing with persistent inflation resulting from a pandemic-induced supply chain shock, a surge in consumer demand and yet another oil shock. This has resulted in an abrupt shift in policy to restore price ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. housing starts and permits plunge
U.S. housing starts and permits plunged in May amid a steep rise in mortgage rates and sour builder sentiment. We expect new housing supply to fall further as mortgage rates continue to rise following the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis-point rate increase on Wednesday, its largest since 1994. Housing ... READ MORE >