New filings for jobless benefits last week stayed above the pre-pandemic level for the second week in a row, continuing to signal a resurgence in layoffs as economic activity slowed. With more companies announcing layoffs recently, we expect the upward trend in new jobless claims to continue. There ... READ MORE >
interest rates
Fed announces largest rate hike in nearly three decades as it seeks to restore price stability
The Federal Reserve lifted its federal funds policy rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% on Wednesday as it moves to restore price stability over the medium term. We now expect the Fed to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points in July and September and then by 25 basis points at each successive ... READ MORE >
Updated FOMC call: Fed to hike policy rate by 75 basis points
The economist John Maynard Keynes once famously quipped, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” And so it goes ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting this week. Based on movements inside the rate markets, quickly changing inflation expectations and a rattled investor class, we ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: 50-basis-point hikes through September
We expect that the Federal Open Market Committee this week will lift the federal funds policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 1.25% and 1.5%, which the market has already priced in and should be of little surprise to investors, the public or other policymakers. What is of more interest is ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate falls to 5.1%, another record low
Canada’s labour market remained tight in May, adding 40,000 jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, another record low, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday. The shortage of workers continued to put upward pressure on hourly wages, which increased by 3.9% on a yearly basis, ... READ MORE >
U.S. May CPI: Inflation continues to broaden out on higher gas and housing costs
Inflation continued to broaden out across the American economy in May, rising by 8.6% annually and underscoring the urgency among central bankers to restore price stability through an increase in the federal funds rate and a drawdown in its $8.9 trillion balance sheet. Six months into the Federal ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise to above pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits surged last week to above the pre-pandemic level for the first time in five months, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday. Behind the increase were a slowdown in hiring and an acceleration in layoffs in recent weeks. New claims for jobless benefits increased by ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Job openings remain near record high
U.S. job openings fell by 3.8% to 11.4 million in April amid economic moderation and monetary policy tightening, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Wednesday. Still, job openings remained near a record high, which puts more pressure on wages and inflation, and adds to the ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada raises interest rate to 1.5% to tame inflation
The Bank of Canada announced another 50-basis-point increase in its overnight rate on Wednesday, to 1.5%, while it continued to shrink its balance sheet, another aggressive step in its campaign to tame inflation. The move was expected given that the economy remains overheated, despite several rate ... READ MORE >
U.S. April Consumer Price Index: Peak inflation provides no solace
About the best one can say about the April inflation report is that year-over-year metrics appear to have topped while core inflation increased, and housing costs that are up 6.5% from a year ago are now a policy issue that needs to be addressed. The data inside the report reflects a shift in demand ... READ MORE >