The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
interest rates
February’s jobs report is likely to generate more questions than answers
We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the jobs data for February is released on Friday, with many of the gains attributable to seasonal fluctuations in hiring. … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment rose in January
Investments in business equipment posted a sharp rebound in January after two consecutive months of disappointing declines. … READ MORE >
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
The forward market now anticipates a 5.25% terminal rate for the federal funds rate at the Fed’s June meeting and then a gradual unwinding just below 4% in two years. … READ MORE >
RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
We now expect at least three 25 basis-point hikes at the Fed’s March, May and June policy meetings with the risk of a 50 basis-point hike in March. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down last week to 192,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic level where they have been since December. … READ MORE >
Canada’s annual inflation slows again, yet Bank of Canada’s work is not done
The consumer price index rose by 5.9% from 12 months ago in January, down from 6.3% in December, and lower than the market’s forecast at 6.1%. … READ MORE >
Jobs and inflation data show a still-strong economy
Both producer inflation and jobless claims came in stronger than expected in the most recent government reports released on Thursday. The data adds further pressure on the Federal Reserve as it aims to steer the economy toward a soft landing. … READ MORE >
Canada adds a robust 150,000 jobs in January as wage growth eases
Robust job gains combined with the unemployment rate holding steady near a record low at 5% should push the expectations of a recession—even a mild one—on hold, or at least push them to the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
The central bank hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, its eighth straight increase, though lower than the recent increases. … READ MORE >