Canada’s latest trade data provides an indicator of the diversification away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets as tariff tensions continue to simmer between the longtime trade partners. In March, Canada’s merchandise exports to countries other than the U.S. surged by 24.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis—the second-largest increase in recorded … … READ MORE >
interest rates
Canada’s unemployment rate rises as U.S. tariffs strain key industries
Canada’s latest jobs report showcased the impact of U.S. tariffs as key industries saw high job losses while the overall unemployment rate rose. … READ MORE >
Fed maintains rates but signals risk of stagflation
The Federal Open Market Committee held its policy rate steady in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday. But the Fed updated its policy statement in which it highlighted the risk of stagflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: April was the cruelest month. Now, all eyes are on the Fed.
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% with little to no change in the policy statement when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 6 and 7. … READ MORE >
On the knife’s edge: U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter
The American economy is navigating an air-pocket that has caused it to rapidly lose altitude. It has entered a period that is best characterized as stagflation and that will in the near term limit the degrees of freedom on policy at the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
What the Liberals’ election win could mean for Canada’s economy
Following the Liberal Party’s election win, a Mark Carney-led government could introduce ambitious economic strategies to contend with ongoing uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Recession Monitor
After significant disruption to trade policy and financial markets this year, we now forecast a 55% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A word about central bank independence
Cutting the policy rate into conditions best described as stagflation would only intensify that movement, driving capital flows into euros, yen and francs while driving interest rates higher. … READ MORE >
Canada’s CPI slows amid rising Buy Canadian movement, cooling global outlook
Canada’s latest consumer price index data shows the influence of the Buy Canadian movement and the effects of global economic uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment plunges amid sweeping tariffs
The consumer sentiment index in April fell to its lowest level since 2022, plunging to 50.8 from 57.0 in March. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to their highest levels since the 1980s. … READ MORE >