Secular stagnation that for years featured low inflation, low interest rates and plentiful capital has been replaced by competition for capital, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Inflation improvement stalled in December ahead of price increases
The CPI data affirmed the growing inclination at the Fed that any further rate cuts—if there are any at all this year— should be postponed until the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Canada’s jobs report exceeds expectations for December
Canada’s jobs report for December exceeded expectations in several ways, a credit to a resilient economy poised to grow as more rate cuts are expected. But the risks of tariffs and trade tension affecting the growth and recovery outlook cannot be ignored. … READ MORE >
American exceptionalism: Job gains of 256,000 to temper calls for further rate cuts
The American economy remains at full employment and will remain tight for the near future, which should temper calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further. … READ MORE >
Trudeau’s resignation spurs uncertainty across Canada’s economy
For nearly a decade, Canada’s political stability helped attract foreign investments. Justin Trudeau’s resignation ushers in a new wave of uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
This rise in the dollar will cause economic challenges around the world, with those in the emerging markets likely to face greater adjustment problems as they face a rising cost of external debt paid in dollars. … READ MORE >
Stubborn inflation not stopping the U.S. consumer from spending
Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used robust gains in disposable income. … READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
Although a blanket tariff by the U.S. on all Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize in the first half of 2025, there is still cause for concern as selective U.S. tariffs are possible and would be disruptive to both countries’ economies. To illustrate this, look at energy and auto manufacturing — Canada’s industries with the highest exports to the U.S. … READ MORE >