The long-run trend in U.S. economic growth has been in decline ever since the 1980s when the Volcker Federal Reserve put the clamps on inflation, leading it to fall to below 2% per year on average We estimate that the real natural rate of interest is 0.5%, which implies a terminal rate of 2.5%. Given ... READ MORE >
interest rates
FOMC decision: Policy, price stability and balance sheet strategy
Price stability is a precondition of maximum sustainable employment, sustainable growth at the long-term rate of 1.8% and financial stability. The Federal Open Market Committee's decision on Wednesday to increase the federal funds rate by a half-percentage point to a range between 0.75% and 1% in ... READ MORE >
Why the U.S. dollar is strengthening
Policy by the central bank, interest rate differentials and a risk haven move into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are driving up the dollar against major trading currencies. This is a welcome development as the Federal Reserve continues to prepare investors for a significant increase in the federal ... READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Confidence in the Fed, but uncertainty over long-term growth
The Federal Reserve has started to normalize interest rates, lifting the short-term transaction cost off the zero bound following two years of crisis policy. The result has been a 100-basis point increase in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which have increased from just under 2% to nearly 3% in a ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada raises rates by a half percentage point
In an effort to target inflation that is at its highest level in decades, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday increased its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, to 1%, and said it would begin to reduce its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening. The move was widely expected following the ... READ MORE >
U.S. March jobs report: American labor market remains red hot
The American labor market remains red hot as the employment-to-population ratio among prime-age workers surged to 80.0% in March, up from 79.5% in February, and total employment increased by 431,000 jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 3.6%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Initial jobless claims remain low
New claims for jobless benefits increased by 14,000 last week to 202,000, continuing to stay below the pre-pandemic level in 2019. The increase was likely temporary as the labor market remained tight. Looking at the 13-week moving average—our preferred measure—new claims have stayed mostly flat in the ... READ MORE >
The housing market will endure interest rate hikes
Two years into the pandemic, the housing market remains on fire and shows few signs of receding. What was initially fueled by buyers' need for more space and a low interest rate environment has proven to have staying power. Now, with inflation hitting 7.9%, a 40-year high, in February, the Federal ... READ MORE >
Durable goods orders decline amid rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties
Durable goods orders declined for the first time in five months in February because of geopolitical uncertainties and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2018. With multiple rate increases expected this year, we expect investment spending for the entire year to ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: New home sales drop amid rising rates
New home sales posted the second consecutive month of decline in February as elevated prices and rising mortgage rates deterred buyers. Sales fell by 2% to 772,000 on an annualized rate, following a sharp 8.4% decrease in January, according to government data released on Wednesday. The decline, ... READ MORE >