The housing market continued to cool, but not the labor market, government data showed. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
Canada adds a stunning 108,000 jobs in October, reversing decline of prior 5 months
The outsize gain and the resilience of the job market suggest that the Bank of Canada will announce another supersized interest rate hike next month. … READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes. … READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing production grow more than expected
Job openings came in hotter than expected in September, suggesting that the imbalance in the labor market will take longer to resolve than originally anticipated. … READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
The steep rise in mortgage rates has been the number one reason for the fall in demand. As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, mortgage rates have spiked to a multi-decade high of more than 7%. … READ MORE >