The ISM’s manufacturing index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight decline as demand for manufactured goods stalled. … READ MORE >
interest rates
The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization
The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic. … READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index returns to pre-pandemic level
Our RSM US Supply Chain Index pointed to supply efficiency for the fourth month in a row, reaching 0.49 standard deviations above neutral in October. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and initial jobless claims give Fed mixed signals
The housing market continued to cool, but not the labor market, government data showed. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
Canada adds a stunning 108,000 jobs in October, reversing decline of prior 5 months
The outsize gain and the resilience of the job market suggest that the Bank of Canada will announce another supersized interest rate hike next month. … READ MORE >