Canada’s economy shed 31,000 jobs in July while the unemployment rate remained at a historic low of 4.9%, confirming what the strong gross domestic product numbers have been showing: The economy is not in recession. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed income markets. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment eases as industrial production falls
The drop in long-term inflation expectations was quite significant, down to 2.8%, the lowest in about a year, from 3.1%. … READ MORE >
Latest jobless claims and producer inflation show upside surprises
New filings for jobless benefits last week rose by 3.8% to 244,000 while producer inflation rose by a surprisingly strong 1.1% in June. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada raises its policy rate by 1% to tame inflation
The Bank of Canada announced a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, the largest increase since 1998, in an attempt to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
U.S. June CPI: Persistent top-line inflation hits 9.1%
The top-line inflation rate hit 9.1% in June on the back of a 11.2% increase in gasoline prices and a 7.5% jump in overall energy prices … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report for June indicates no recession now
An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs in any given month, as the June employment report showed on Friday. The data released by the Labor Department strongly implied that the economy is not in recession. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain above pre-pandemic level
New claims inched down by only 0.9% last week, to 229,000, from an upwardly revised 231,000 in the prior week. The pre-pandemic level in 2019 was 218,000. … READ MORE >
As rates rise, Canada’s construction industry enters a new phase
One of the industries hit hardest by rising interest rates has been construction, and this slowdown now threatens to make Canada’s housing shortage more acute. But there are opportunities for savvy developers. … READ MORE >
Midyear update: An economy on knife’s edge as inflation bites
The supply, demand and energy shocks cascading through the American economy are sufficient to cause an end to the business cycle over the next six months. … READ MORE >