While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >
interest rates
October job openings surge as labor market shows resilience
Total job openings in October rose to 7.74 million from 7.37 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
given the looming fiscal and trade policy changes, it is growing more likely that the central bank will pause its rate-cutting campaign to ascertain their impact on the economy. … READ MORE >
Year ahead in Canada: Return to growth as rate cuts take hold
The Canadian economy is expected to grow at around two per cent in 2025 as unemployment falls and price stability is restored. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall in October as hurricanes take a toll
The total number of starts in October was 1.3 million, marking the 30th straight month of staying below our long-term sustainable level of 1.7 million. … READ MORE >
Canada’s prices for services and shelter decelerated in October
Canada’s consumer price index accelerated in October, but that increase will not deter a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decelerated in October
The mixed results in the October report should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. … READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
One-time special factors and ongoing sticky shelter and service prices combined to cause an increase of 2.6% in the consumer price index in October. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. … READ MORE >
The increased attractiveness of corporate bonds as the Fed cuts rates
We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. … READ MORE >