We expect the policy rate to fall to 3.5 per cent by the end of the year and return to a terminal rate of 2.75 per cent in the first half of 2025. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Housing starts and permits ease in September
September’s housing starts came in at 1.35 million, down 0.5% from August, while building permits, a proxy for future projects, fell 2.9% to 1.4 million. … READ MORE >
September retail sales top forecasts
Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
Canadian firms in an era of a higher cost of capital
As rates fall but remain above pre-pandemic levels, businesses must harness opportunities to create and deliver values through strategic investments to boost productivity. … READ MORE >
Canada added 47,000 jobs in September as jobless rate fell to 6.5%
The increase in jobs, the largest since April, gives confidence that Canada can maintain a soft landing until the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts, which began in June, are sufficient for the economy to awaken. … READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The jobs data released Friday strongly suggests that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points on Nov. 7 at its next meeting. … READ MORE >