American business spending on core equipment came in higher than forecast in December, with both orders and shipments pointing to strong growth to end the year. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Bond market volatility and the Federal Reserve
It is time for the Fed to drop its over-emphasis on data dependency and move to a more strategic view that takes into account the risks to the outlook that will be front and center this year and next. … READ MORE >
To understand rising rates and volatility, look to regime change in global economy
Gone is the era of low inflation, low interest rates, a global savings glut and sagging aggregate demand. In its place is a new framework featuring scarce capital, insufficient aggregate supply, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Canada’s consumer price index rises by 1.8% as tax holiday takes hold
Canada’s CPI rose 1.8 per cent in December and declined 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis due to the tax holiday and disinflation forces throughout the economy. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Regime change and financial conditions
Secular stagnation that for years featured low inflation, low interest rates and plentiful capital has been replaced by competition for capital, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Inflation improvement stalled in December ahead of price increases
The CPI data affirmed the growing inclination at the Fed that any further rate cuts—if there are any at all this year— should be postponed until the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Canada’s jobs report exceeds expectations for December
Canada’s jobs report for December exceeded expectations in several ways, a credit to a resilient economy poised to grow as more rate cuts are expected. But the risks of tariffs and trade tension affecting the growth and recovery outlook cannot be ignored. … READ MORE >
American exceptionalism: Job gains of 256,000 to temper calls for further rate cuts
The American economy remains at full employment and will remain tight for the near future, which should temper calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further. … READ MORE >
Trudeau’s resignation spurs uncertainty across Canada’s economy
For nearly a decade, Canada’s political stability helped attract foreign investments. Justin Trudeau’s resignation ushers in a new wave of uncertainty. … READ MORE >