This economic commentary is dedicated to the memory of my friend the economics reporter Ben White. I shall miss talking economics, policy and baseball with him. Labor demand continues to increase at a remarkably strong pace, which removes the prospect of a July rate reduction and creates the sense that ... READ MORE >
interest rates
FOMC preview: Dot plot to imply two rate cuts this year
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its policy rate unchanged between a rate of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting next week. But we anticipate that the median rate forecast implied by the dot plot will indicate that the committee now expects two rate cuts this year, for a cumulative rate ... READ MORE >
Global central bank policy pivot continues as ECB cuts rate
The European Central Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points on Thursday which, following the 25 basis-point rate reduction by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, represents the first in what we expect will be a series of rate cuts by the G7 central banks this year. The moves in Europe and Canada ... READ MORE >
In long-awaited shift, Bank of Canada cuts its policy rate to 4.75%,
The Bank of Canada's pivot has finally arrived. After years of raising interest rates and then keeping them elevated, the Bank of Canada dropped the policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, signaling a new period of recovery and growth. It was the first rate change for the Bank of Canada ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada preview: A rate cut is desperately needed
The Bank of Canada needs to announce rate cuts during its June 5 meeting to spur economic growth. Any further delay and the bank would risk making a policy error and undermining Canada’s growth outlook. A 25-basis-point rate cut would kickstart the easing cycle, which will unfold gradually over the ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy grew by 0.4%, bolstering case for rate cuts
Canada’s latest gross domestic product data adds to the mountain of evidence that a rate cut by the Bank of Canada should come at its meeting next week for the recovery to begin. The economy expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter after no change in the previous quarter, according to data released by ... READ MORE >
Spending cools more than expected as Fed contemplates rate cuts
American consumers pulled back in April as a sign of elevated interest rates weighing further on overall demand as fiscal spending from the pandemic wanes. The material slowdown of the labor market in April was also a key factor with income growth essentially unchanged on an inflation-adjusted ... READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Reducing rates to bolster growth
After two years of major central banks raising interest rates, the weighted global policy rate stands at a restrictive 7.2%. But with disinflation having taken hold around the world, it is time for central banks to reduce these rates. Usually, the Federal Reserve would lead the way. But with private ... READ MORE >
Consumer inflation expectations moderate in May
The University of Michigan reported on Friday that consumer sentiment and inflation expectations improved in the second half of May. This may be welcome news after the Federal Reserve seemed less sure about whether interest rates were sufficiently restrictive or not. The effect of high interest rates ... READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales miss forecasts amid rising mortgage rates
New home sales fell below estimates in April as mortgage rates surged to above 7%. The data, released by the Census Bureau on Thursday, pointed to a disappointing month for housing sales, following the drop in April’s existing home sales released on Wednesday. The rebound in inflation in the first ... READ MORE >