We think that the Federal Reserve’s current cycle of rate hikes has peaked at a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. While inflation stands well above the Fed’s official 2% target, we think that because of the economic and political shocks since the pandemic, the Fed will raise its inflation target in the ... READ MORE >
Jerome Powell
FOMC policy decision: The time for an end to rate hikes has arrived
The Federal Open Market Committee increased its policy rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. While the September, November and December meetings remain live options for more rate increases, we think that Wednesday’s hike is the final step in a two-year effort to ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. This implies a possible policy peak of 5.75% later this year. ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Is 10 the magic number?
We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its May 3 meeting, with changes in the Federal Open Market Committee statement that imply a possible pause in the rate hike campaign and a bias toward future tightening if inflation ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop further
New claims for unemployment benefits inched lower than expected for the second month in a row last week, continuing to signal a tight labor market despite recent bank failures. Claims fell by 1,000 to 191,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average and below expectations of a slight ... READ MORE >
Catch-25: Fed hikes rates amid financial stability risk
Joseph Heller’s novel “Catch-22” delved into the impossible conditions imposed upon people caught in situations from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions. That Catch-22 is an apt description of where the Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its ... READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
If one wanted to create a confluence of cross-currents that make the job of policymakers more difficult, one might choose the combination of a red-hot economy, robust job gains, elevated inflation and an estimated $620 billion in potentially unrealized losses inside the banking ... READ MORE >
Inflation grew faster in January, bolstering the case for more rate hikes
Inflation accelerated in January, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates at its next two meetings. January’s Consumer Price Index increased by 0.5% on the month, rising from a 0.1% increase in December, and by 6.4% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
As the Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of its interest rate increases recently, financial conditions in the American economy have eased as well. The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal as asset prices anticipate improved prospects for reduced ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain below the pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits continued to defy market expectations, falling to 183,000 last week from 186,000 a week earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. New jobless claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, remained below the pre-pandemic level of 218,000 for the fifth week ... READ MORE >