We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its May 3 meeting, with changes in the FOMC statement that imply a possible pause in the rate hike campaign and a bias toward future tightening if inflation proves sticky and stubborn. … READ MORE >
Jerome Powell
Initial jobless claims drop further
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 191,000 last week, remaining below the pre-pandemic average and below expectations of a slight increase to 197,000. … READ MORE >
Catch-25: Fed hikes rates amid financial stability risk
The Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid a quickly evolving global banking crisis. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
February showed a 311,000 net change in total employment amid a 3.6% unemployment rate and 4.6% increase in average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Inflation grew faster in January, bolstering the case for more rate hikes
January’s Consumer Price Index increased by 0.5% on the month, rising from a 0.1% increase in December, and by 6.4% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal but corporate debt issuance remains weighed down by rate hikes and the risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain below the pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits continued to defy market expectations, falling to 183,000 last week from 186,000 a week earlier. … READ MORE >
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
The central bank hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, its eighth straight increase, though lower than the recent increases. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise again in December, adding to pressure on the Fed
The number of job vacancies jumped to 11 million in December from 10.4 million. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
Our base case remains that the Federal Reserve’s policy rate will peak between 5% and 5.25% and stay there until early next year. … READ MORE >