First-time jobless claims declined to 348,000 for the week ending Aug. 14 from a previous upwardly revised 377,000. That decline should be put in the context of what we know lies ahead: seasonal distortions around the upcoming U.S. Labor Day holiday, expected volatility driven by the COVID-19 delta ... READ MORE >
jobless claims
CHART OF THE DAY: Jobless claims are persistent drag on economic recovery
Despite expectations for a decline in weekly unemployment numbers, jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 5 held steady, signaling that the climb toward economic recovery remains volatile amid the ongoing impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of Americans are unemployed and face longstanding ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Weekly initial jobless claims higher than expected
In a sobering surprise, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 15 reached a higher-than-expected 1.1 million, a sign the road to economic recovery will be bumpy and volatile as the country struggles to gain footing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims are still six times higher than normal
We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state employment agencies ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, ... READ MORE >
Expect initial jobless claims to surge this week as coronavirus spreads
As municipalities and states take action to stop the spread of the coronavirus -- and as businesses begin to shed labor – we expect the number of claims for unemployment benefits to mount. Because of the scope and scale of the human tragedy before us, we are not going to make a point forecast on the ... READ MORE >
Jump in initial jobless claims signals an impending recession
Weekly claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 281,000 for the week ending March 14, likely the first sign of the catastrophic disruption to normal life and an impending economic recession caused by the spread of the coronavirus. The only real question now is if the damage caused by the shocks ... READ MORE >
Preview: Jobless claims to soar in near-term
Over the next few weeks, U.S. data flow will capture the impact of the supply, demand and financial shocks that are cascading throughout the economy. Policymakers should anticipate a wave of layoffs reflecting the stunning downturn in the economy. The most important of the data is the evolution of ... READ MORE >
Calm before the storm: New jobless claims remain below long-term average
Initial benefit claims for unemployment insurance remained subdued in the past week, signaling a still-healthy labor market despite the outbreak of the coronavirus. With the shutting down of entertainment venues, schools and other large gatherings picking up momentum as social distancing gains ... READ MORE >
Initial unemployment claims, coronavirus and recession probabilities
Over the next few weeks, policymakers will receive high frequency data that will capture supply and demand shocks that are going to cascade throughout the economy. The most important is the initial jobless claims data that will most likely reflect job losses in trade and transportation – disruptions that ... READ MORE >