Retail sales rebounded in February, showing that the sharp drop in January was likely more noise than trend, according to data from the Commerce Department on Thursday. Once the seasonal factors in January’s data faded away, overall spending at retail stores, restaurants and online remained solid ... READ MORE >
jobless claims
Business investment loses momentum in July
Business spending on equipment eked out a slight gain in July in what was a disappointing start for the investment component of the economy in the third quarter. Jobless claims, however, defied expectations again, dropping last week to the lowest level in August. Orders for capital goods that ... READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer inflation show mixed results
Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% for the week ending May 6, to 264,000, the most since 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The rise came as the Labor Department also reported the producer prices bounced back in April, in part because of favorable comparisons to surging prices of ... READ MORE >
Existing home sales fall below pre-pandemic level as initial jobless claims hold steady
Existing home sales fell in July to their lowest level since 2020 amid elevated mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve continued to hike interest rates. Sales dropped 5.9% to 4.81 million annualized, marking the sixth straight month of market contraction, the National Association of Realtors reported on ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims in July continue rising layoffs trend
New filings for jobless benefits continued to beat market estimates to the upside, falling 1.9% to 256,000 for the week ending July 23. Given that the labor market is the main force keeping the economy from descending toward an economic trough, the initial jobless claims data released Thursday add ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below pre-pandemic level while housing starts improve
Economic data released Thursday showed improvement in both weekly U.S. jobless claims for the week ending March 12 and housing starts in February. The number of building permits remained elevated, despite a small decrease on the month. New filings for jobless claims, a proxy for job layoffs, fell below ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More noise than signal
First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200. Investors should anticipate more noise than signal from this data over the next three weeks because of holiday-induced distortions. Just as ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims decline ahead of expected delta-driven turbulence
First-time jobless claims declined to 348,000 for the week ending Aug. 14 from a previous upwardly revised 377,000. That decline should be put in the context of what we know lies ahead: seasonal distortions around the upcoming U.S. Labor Day holiday, expected volatility driven by the COVID-19 delta ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Jobless claims are persistent drag on economic recovery
Despite expectations for a decline in weekly unemployment numbers, jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 5 held steady, signaling that the climb toward economic recovery remains volatile amid the ongoing impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of Americans are unemployed and face longstanding ... READ MORE >