The U.S. September employment report will most likely feature a net gain in total employment of 375,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.1% when it is released on Friday. The report will most likely reflect a mix of constraints in hiring related to Hurricane Ida and the reopening of ... READ MORE >
jobs report
August jobs report preview: Expect a hint of delta drag on hiring
We expect an increase in total employment of 600,000 in August with the chance of a stronger number linked to seasonal hiring in education when the jobs report is released on Friday. That seasonal hiring will add roughly 225,000 jobs to the top-line number, while the unemployment rate will decline ... READ MORE >
July employment report: Robust gains mark summer hiring peak
The U.S. economy is expanding in a robust manner and it should be of little surprise that hiring is on a tear, averaging 831,000 new jobs over the past three months as the service sector continues to gain pace. In July, the economy generated 943,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Education and service hiring to drive gains in July
We expect a net increase in total employment of 950,000 and a decline to 5.7% in the unemployment rate when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its jobs report on Friday. Our top-line estimate stands in contrast with the consensus forecast of 875,000 for the month, which would make for a ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: April JOLTS data shows tightening in the labor market, but it’s nothing new
The federal government's job openings and labor turnover survey data for April, also known as JOLTS, implies that while the labor market has tightened—mostly because of people dropping out of the workforce amid broad demographic and structural economic changes—this is nothing new. If anything, there is ... READ MORE >
May employment report: Job gains accelerate, adding 559,000
The American labor market showed improved signs of life in May, adding 559,000 jobs along with an upward revision to the April figure of 27,000 jobs, putting it at 586,000. In many respects, this is a Goldilocks number—not too hot and not too cold—which should provide some relief to concerns that ... READ MORE >
May jobs report preview: Seasonal adjustment challenges amid strong growth
We expect total employment to increase by 615,000 jobs when the employment report for May is released on Friday, with the possibility of a strong month of growth because of diminished seasonal effects linked to the echo of the pandemic-induced collapse in employment last year. As the unemployment rate ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.1% for April is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. An analysis of the labor report suggests that the unemployment rate, accounting for the ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Economy added a disappointing 266,000 jobs in April
An easing of commercial restrictions, mass vaccinations and pent-up demand racing ahead of the overall reopening of the economy bolstered hiring in April to the tune of 266,000 jobs as the unemployment rate increased to 6.1%, according to government data released Friday. While this report is ... READ MORE >
Employment report preview: Expect a gain of 1.4 million jobs in April
An American economy on the cusp of a comprehensive reopening is set to generate another month of robust job gains that will border on the historic. With nearly 150 million Americans having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, we expect a net increase in employment of roughly 1.4 ... READ MORE >