Policymakers and investors should take one last good look at the February U.S. employment data because it effectively represents the end of the multi-year string of strong monthly jobs reports. From here on in, the focus will shift to weekly first-time initial jobless claims and filings for unemployment insurance. … READ MORE >
jobs
Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full
The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. Analysis of the payroll data outside of the traditional focus on the latest monthly number shows some cracks in the decade-long recovery from the 2007-09 Great Recession, pointing to long-term issues that will likely need to be addressed by monetary and fiscal policymakers. … READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
October US employment report: solid trend in hiring continues
The October report continues to imply a period of slower hiring ahead, excluding temporary census workers compared to one year ago which is in line with the overall slower pace of economic activity. The bottom line of the October U.S. employment report is that there is sufficient job creation and wage gains to support growth near the long-term trend of 1.8 % and keep the U.S. some distance from a total economic downturn. … READ MORE >
Hiring expected to slow in September jobs report
The labor market is expected to continue to lose steam in September, with the total change in employment likely increasing by 115,000 jobs on the month, and the unemployment rate likely rising to 3.8%. Given the slowdown in domestic manufacturing activity and goods production, we note there is downside risk to our top line forecast when the report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
August hiring slows: Jobs report shows unflattering shape of things to come
August hiring slowed to 130,000 jobs, reflecting late-cycle business dynamics and the impact of the trade war that is now spilling over into the real economy. After adjusting for Census Bureau hiring the top-line hiring increase was only 105,000 jobs, just above the 100,000 necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate … READ MORE >
US August employment preview: focus on goods producing and manufacturing jobs
Investor attention will be squarely focused on the pace of hiring in goods production and manufacturing in the August U.S. employment report released on Friday. The results will follow a decline in the August ISM manufacturing employment sub-index to 47.4, which implies contraction in hiring across those sectors. … READ MORE >
Health care jobs market remains tight, government data shows
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released by the government last Tuesday underscored continued tightness in the health care jobs market through June. Health care organizations added 60,000 employees, after accounting for employee departures.Total job openings across the ecosystem increased by 10,000 to 1.217 million. … READ MORE >
US July employment report: “A Gentleman’s C”
Downward revisions to the May and June estimate of total employment as well as a decline in total and aggregate hours worked cast a pall over a total change in July employment of 123,000 (164,000 top line less net downward revision of 41,000) and the unemployment rate that held steady … … READ MORE >
When addressing nursing shortage, look to your own ranks first
The market for skilled workers, administrators and support staff remains tight in U.S. health care as providers struggle to fill jobs, particularly critical roles such as nurses. The numbers have not appreciably improved since the last time I wrote about this topic: Total health care job openings have remained around 1.1 million to 1.2 million since December of 2017. … READ MORE >