With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Rising inflation, increased spending complicate Fed’s next decision
While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Europe’s de-industrial moment
As China continues to flood its external market with cheap goods, Germany finds itself to be a willing partner, trading its low value-added manufacturing sector for the disinflation of cheap goods. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The $12 trillion repo market means de-dollarization is improbable
The euro, yuan, pound and yen do not have the adequate depth to support the liquidity needs of the global systematically important banks. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of relying on T-bills to finance the deficit
Reliance on the front end of the Treasury curve, and a drawdown in the repo facility, open the government to the risk of increased volatility, … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Chinese deflation is not abating
Beijing’s current policies are likely to continue what is shaping up to be an extended period of private sector deleveraging. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. investment grade spread implies robust risk appetite
While the yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped by 10 basis points since the end of April, investment-grade corporate bond yields have dropped by roughly 25 basis points. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. electricity pricing rises 9.5% amid surging AI demand
Tech giants’ investments in data centers will require vast amounts of energy, which will ultimately hit consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Diverging inflation expectations
Policy decisions by the Federal Reserve will rest upon whether it thinks that higher tariffs will result in a one-time increase in prices or persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Powell at Jackson Hole
The retirement of baby boomers and immigration enforcement are reducing the supply of workers, making monetary policy decisions that much more challenging. … READ MORE >