Increasing competition for scarce capital means higher long-term interest rates in general and elevated mortgage rates above 6% for 30-year fixed mortgage products. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Market Minute: All I got from the crummy government shutdown is a 1.5% drag on GDP
Dislocation around government paychecks, SNAP payments and the permanent loss of income by government contractors over the past six weeks will take a number of weeks to unwind. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Cloudy with a chance of a December pause at the Fed
Inflation is likely to rise faster than the Fed’s 2% target with risk of moving higher as the strong fiscal impulse that will hit the economy next year bolsters growth prospects. … READ MORE >
UK financial conditions provide tailwind amid fiscal uncertainty
Financial conditions in the UK imply a solid tailwind for growth from the financial sector even as uncertainty over fiscal policy weighs heavily on the real economy, where hiring has slowed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: UK financial conditions are supportive of growth
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index stands at 1.4 standard deviations above neutral, which is providing a strong tailwind behind domestic economic activity. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Long-term interest rates and policy uncertainty
Economists’ are forecasting muted long-term interest rates by the end of next year, even as expansionary fiscal policies kick in. … READ MORE >
Falling demand suggests further labor market deterioration
Fresh data from ADP, Revelio Labs and Challenger, Gray & Christmas all point to the prospect that weakness in labor demand is becoming entrenched and is not temporary. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Lenders remain cautious
While businesses are now looking to expand, a modest majority of lenders have retained their more cautious approach, although that will most likely improve. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The K-shaped loan market
Loan growth over the past year illustrates a large divergence in loan provisions to traditional borrowers versus non-depository financial institutions. … READ MORE >
ADP employment data affirms modest job growth
The ADP private sector employment estimate for October released on Wednesday showed a gain of 42,000 jobs, with service-providing firms adding 33,000 and goods-producing firms adding 10,000 positions. … READ MORE >