A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Market Minute: Allentown, hubris, urea and sulfur
One of the lessons of the effective shutdown in exports like sulfur and urea out of the Persian Gulf is the role that those commodities play in everyday economic life. … READ MORE >
RSM lowers GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.7%
We estimate that there is a 30% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% before the war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Price signals in the oil markets
Brent crude is now the primary price signal that investors are watching as the war in the Persian Gulf escalates. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >
Hiring surged in March but the underlying trend was softer
Methodological changes to the monthly estimate of the birth-death model have injected volatility into the data. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Americans set to see slower real wage growth
We expect a 0.4% increase in monthly average hourly earnings, which should translate to a 3.7% annual increase, when the March jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A reality check to the hopium over war’s end
While equity investors on Tuesday were reacting to optimism over an end to the Iran war, oil and jet fuel costs were pricing in a different outcome. … READ MORE >
American demand destruction: Seven channels that compound to threaten U.S. growth
Demand destruction—the process by which high prices force consumers and businesses to cut spending—unfolds through seven distinct channels on different timescales. … READ MORE >