A slowing global economy and declining bond yields across the developed world—some negative—portend a deteriorating business climate ahead. To combat this broad slowdown, global central banks are shifting monetary policy toward more accommodative stances that include real negative rates, nominal negative ... READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Adding to the list of unintended consequences
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, as the market processed conflicting central banking trends: global equities pushed higher on an expected U.S. rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a quick turnaround in the U.K. bond market as the slim probability of a base rate cut by the Bank of ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Lower highs and lower lows
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed slightly higher this week, as political talk centers on whether Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party front runner favored to take over as U.K. Prime Minister, can make good on his promise of removing Britain from the European Union with or without a deal. The index ... READ MORE >
Calculating the likelihood of recession–RSM partners with UCLA Anderson Forecast
RSM recently entered into a strategic partnership with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a longstanding and well-respected barometer of the economies of California and the United States issued by UCLA Anderson School of Management, based on GDP data and other economic indicators. Earlier in June, the ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: A respite, but for how long?
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed lower for the third week in a row, as the British economy contends with an uncertain political future nearly a month after Prime Minister Theresa May’s announced resignation. The composite index—which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s pending departure ... READ MORE >
Wage growth and the end of business cycles
Wage growth during the current business cycle has been weak compared to the past several economic expansions. The May U.S. employment report implied a growth rate in wages of 3.1%, which was accompanied by a 2.73% three-month average annualized pace, pointing to broader deceleration in the growth of ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed positions for rate cut later this year
The Federal Reserve is on the precipice of a major shift in policy as the economy, hiring and wages slow amid a backdrop of muted inflation. As risks to the economy proliferate, the central bank is well-positioned to await the outcome of the G20 meeting later this month, which may determine future ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index–Assessing the political damage
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed lower for the second week in a row, following the resignation of Prime Minster Theresa May last month and an uncertain political future for the U.K. The composite index—which measures economic uncertainty surrounding Britain’s departure from the European ... READ MORE >
Will May’s slow jobs growth spell a Fed interest rate cut? Joe Brusuelas offers insight in a WSJ podcast
The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May. Does that lend credence to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is preparing for a rate in the near term? RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas weighs in on this podcast with the Wall Street Journal's Charlie Turner on Friday, June 7. "The weakness in ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases amid May’s departure
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed at 0.42 on Friday, moderating from 0.60 at the end of last week, as Prime Minister Theresa May officially exits her post at Tory leader. The composite index—which measures economic uncertainty surrounding Britain’s pending departure from the European Union—remains ... READ MORE >