After years of the rupee declining in value, the forward markets expect the rupee to lose another 3.0% in each of the next five years. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Market Minute: Tariffs are struck down, but don’t count on price cuts
Even if tariff refunds eventually make their way onto corporate balance sheets, the operational costs tied to tariff uncertainty have already been paid. … READ MORE >
Economic implications of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling
The Supreme Court overturned the Trump administration’s signature economic policy on Friday, ruling by a 6-3 majority that the imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal. The trade taxes included a minimum tariff of 10% with reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries … … READ MORE >
In GDP and inflation data, a rich juxtaposition of discontent
The economy slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, which is below its 1.8% long-term trend, while the personal consumption expenditures price index stands at 2.9%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Noise and signal inside heavy truck sales
This pattern of falling volumes paired with rising rates and shrinking capacity is the signature of a supply-side purge. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A housing shortage and a policy impasse
Overall housing costs (including rents) are rising at 3.4% per year; those costs account for 44.5% of the consumer price index. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Growth of U.S. government debt and the repo market
The use of repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements among primary dealers reached $8 trillion in January, according to SIFMA. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Is private investment being crowded out?
The federal debt accounted for 42% of total debt through the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds. … READ MORE >
Jobs report shows that slow-hire, slow-fire remains base case
The American economy added 130,000 jobs in January, enough to push the unemployment rate down to 4.3% amid a large downward revision in total employment from April 2024. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Shipping and trade activity through 2025
Container volume at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continued to decrease in December for both imports and exports … READ MORE >