After months of wild swings, the S&P 500 index is back near its record high. But there are warning signs. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market Minute: Inventory cushion may be holding down inflation
Even as some goods showed early signs of tariff-induced inflation, businesses have for the most part managed to absorb the cost of the new trade taxes. … READ MORE >
The U.S. is in better position to endure an oil and gas shock
Overall, the impact of the most recent Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy will be muted, but the risks of the conflict expanding remain. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Patience is a virtue for the Fed
Based on our own model and the central bank’s recent rhetoric, the Fed will be and should be in no hurry to cut rates given the risk around the economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: It’s not the beans that cost more. It’s the can.
In a range of categories in the consumer price index where goods have been subject to tariffs like the 25% levy on steel and aluminum, prices increased significantly. … READ MORE >
Large declines in energy prices dampen a modest increase in inflation
Beneath the surface, one can see an emerging sketch of how inflation will increase across the economy as tariffs take effect. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The unbearable lightness of tariff timelines
Months after the United States began to announce sweeping new tariffs, businesses and consumers face more uncertainty, not less. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Economy slowing into second half of the year
Slowly gathering headwinds are causing the economy to lose steam as it heads into the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar and yields diverge as investors shy from long-dated debt
Rising risk around tariffs, slower growth, higher inflation and lower rates are creating conditions where investors appear to be shying away from long-dated debt. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Mentions of tariffs soar in earnings transcripts of middle market firms
Since last August, total mentions of tariffs in earning transcripts of Russell 3000 firms have increased from 91 to 5,071 in May using a three-month moving average. … READ MORE >