We expect the cost of credit for businesses to be pressured higher as the risk of a slowdown increases. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market Minute: A widening U.S. 30-year/10-year spread points to long-term change
Now, as populist economics takes hold and globalization fades, nowhere is the new regime better illustrated than in the U.S. 30-year less 10-year Treasury spread in the bond market. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Something’s got to give in financial markets
Now, as the impact of tariffs begins to hit consumers, it would not be surprising if investors push yields higher and the dollar lower. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fiscal policy in the spotlight after U.S. credit rating downgrade
Following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1, we expect a rising risk premium across the Treasury curve. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Strategic autonomy, India and the U.S. trade relationship
While there is ample room for India to lower its tariffs, it is doubtful that India will give much on its oil imports or any framework that restricts efforts to move up the value chain in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The bond market is not buying it
Fixed-income investors are sniffing out the logic of economic populism amid a move toward trade protectionism, which strongly implies higher inflation and rising long-term yields. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Household stress evident in rising delinquencies
The U.S. Household Debt and Credit Report, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shows growing signs of stress, particularly when it comes to credit cards and student loans. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
With trade truce, U.S. and China avoid a decoupling, but devil is in the details
The bottom line is that American firms can now prepare for a significant increase in the cost of imports, which will then be passed along to consumers. … READ MORE >