Since the American economy emerged from the shocks of the pandemic, we have made the case that it is undergoing a fundamental structural change. The end of historically low interest rates, the adoption of policies aimed at bolstering vital national industries and the influx of foreign capital have all ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
The disinflationary trend that has worked its way through the economy for much of the year modestly abated in October as the top-line consumer price index increased by 0.2% and the core rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, those figures increased by 2.6% and 3.3%, ... READ MORE >
To contend with higher tariffs, businesses need to act now
With higher tariffs likely under the incoming Trump administration, businesses are already making decisions in a way that will affect economic growth and reshape the global economy. We are already getting questions on pulling forward expected orders for durable goods to avoid the increase in ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. The major takeaway from the policy statement is ... READ MORE >
The increased attractiveness of corporate bonds as the Fed cuts rates
We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. We anticipate an uneventful meeting given its proximity to the presidential election and the flexibility that the Fed will need heading into its December meeting ... READ MORE >
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
The October jobs report is to be taken seriously but not literally. Once one adds the downward revision of 112,000 jobs for August and September to the 12,000 gain in October, there was a decline in total employment of 100,000 inside the report. We would urge investors, firm managers and ... READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
Robust spending, increasing income and the re-establishment of price stability amid strong productivity gains are the primary factors shaping the economic narrative. American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue ... READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
American economic outperformance continued into the third quarter as the first estimate of U.S. gross domestic product showed a 2.8% increase. The gains were driven by robust household spending, which increased by 3.7%, strong nonresidential investment, which rose by 3.3% featuring a robust 11.1% rise ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions improve in Canada and U.S., setting stage for growth
Financial conditions continue to improve both in Canada and in the United States, signaling stability in markets and setting the groundwork for economic growth. RSM's proprietary financial conditions indexes are based on the level of risk or accommodation in four asset markets: stocks, money markets, ... READ MORE >
A nascent dollar bloc: Re-globalization amid U.S.-Chinese tensions
The fragmenting of free trade around the world and the rise of industrial policy have resulted in the nascent formation of a trade, finance and currency bloc organized around American economic and security interests. Although not formalized, the democracies in the West and their primary trading ... READ MORE >