From our point of view, the current global trade framework favors the U.S. for the most part. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market minute: Identifying the signal from the noise in consumer spending
Producers and consumers have pulled forward economic activity to avoid potential tariffs, which has skewed hard data and dampened soft sentiment data. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Widening credit spreads denote rising risk from trade policy
Wider spreads are often a harbinger of reduced access to capital, rising unemployment and declining corporate capital expenditures. … READ MORE >
Europe’s way forward in a post-industrial world
Change has come to Europe’s developed economies. The combination of China Shock 2.0 and a reduced American security umbrella is creating the conditions that if seized could move Europe toward a more perfect union. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. financial conditions continue to deteriorate
Financial conditions continue to deteriorate as uncertainty and volatility creep back into the equity, bond and money markets. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady with a stagflation-lite forecast
The Fed’s statement and forecasts draw a picture of a central bank that is on its heels and looking to ascertain the difference between signal and noise amid rising uncertainty as it determines its policy … READ MORE >
Market minute: There is no alternative to the U.S. dollar
The dollar remains the currency of choice for emerging markets. The dollar’s percentage share of emerging market bonds stands at 86.3% and is 81.7% of all credit. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada excluding oil
The oil trade between the two countries is a function of geographical proximity, efficiency, cost and infrastructure concerns. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Will the economy keep on truckin’? An indicator is saying no.
The Dow Jones U.S. Trucking Index has declined 24% from its peak on Nov. 11 and is down 21.5% since its recent high on Feb. 18. … READ MORE >
The waiting is the hardest part: Fed can’t do anything about tariffs
We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% while adjusting its Summary of Economic Projections to anticipate slower growth at or near 2%. … READ MORE >