Since hitting $80 a barrel on Jan. 15, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen by nearly 30%, hitting $56.69 on May 5. Retail gasoline prices, meanwhile, have risen slightly. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market Minute: Part-time employment boosted jobs numbers, but it won’t last
The rise in transportation and warehousing employment in April can be attributed to businesses front-running the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A brief word about productivity and protectionism
The shift toward protectionism all the more ill-timed given the monumental investment into artificial intelligence and how it will drive innovation and productivity into the next generation. … READ MORE >
On the knife’s edge: U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter
The American economy is navigating an air-pocket that has caused it to rapidly lose altitude. It has entered a period that is best characterized as stagflation and that will in the near term limit the degrees of freedom on policy at the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. heavy truck sales point to slowing economy
Production and sales of heavy trucks are slowing ahead of the shocks linked to tariffs and what will be further declines in demand by households and commercial ventures, data shows. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Unemployment expectations, job creation and the trade shock
The percentage of consumers who expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months soared to 65% in April, according to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment. … READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Recession Monitor
After significant disruption to trade policy and financial markets this year, we now forecast a 55% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private sector deleveraging risk amid trade conflict
One should not discount the possibility of further financial volatility because of the leverage of non-financial bank intermediaries. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Currency politics, capital flows and U.S.-Japanese relations
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato are set to start a dialogue on currency rates when they meet this week in Washington. Their meeting should capture in vivid fashion the lack of clarity in U.S. trade policy at a time when Japanese decision makers are … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Reservation wages decline as worker discontent grows
The reservation wage, or the lowest wage rate at which a worker will accept a particular job offer, has declined this year to $74,135 from $82,236 last year, according to the New York Fed. … READ MORE >