Based on our own model and the central bank’s recent rhetoric, the Fed will be and should be in no hurry to cut rates given the risk around the economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market Minute: It’s not the beans that cost more. It’s the can.
In a range of categories in the consumer price index where goods have been subject to tariffs like the 25% levy on steel and aluminum, prices increased significantly. … READ MORE >
Large declines in energy prices dampen a modest increase in inflation
Beneath the surface, one can see an emerging sketch of how inflation will increase across the economy as tariffs take effect. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The unbearable lightness of tariff timelines
Months after the United States began to announce sweeping new tariffs, businesses and consumers face more uncertainty, not less. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Economy slowing into second half of the year
Slowly gathering headwinds are causing the economy to lose steam as it heads into the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar and yields diverge as investors shy from long-dated debt
Rising risk around tariffs, slower growth, higher inflation and lower rates are creating conditions where investors appear to be shying away from long-dated debt. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Mentions of tariffs soar in earnings transcripts of middle market firms
Since last August, total mentions of tariffs in earning transcripts of Russell 3000 firms have increased from 91 to 5,071 in May using a three-month moving average. … READ MORE >
U.S. spending and inflation ease as companies slam the brakes on imports
American spending moderated in April as U.S. businesses pulled back significantly on imports after months of pulling forward economic activity to avoid higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Can businesses absorb the cost of tariffs?
Wherever the effective tariff rate ends up, any reduction in margins because of the significant increase in trade taxes will result in reduced growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why global bond yields are rising
Unfunded tax cuts, outlays on defense and infrastructure as well as rising inflation expectations are pushing global bond yields higher, which will put at risk private sector investment. … READ MORE >