Policy normalization at the Federal Reserve took a giant step forward on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 25 and 50 basis points while slashing its growth forecast and increasing its estimate of inflation. The announcement ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Life during wartime: Inflation, price controls and economic conflict
Inflation spikes higher during war and economic conflict. Price dislocation, price controls and self-rationing are facts of life during wartime. Today, with inflation at a 40-year high and a policy rate pinned to the zero boundary, policymakers face significant constraints as they try to find ways ... READ MORE >
Consumer choice, self-rationing and preparing for shortages
The war in Ukraine, the cutoff of Russian exports and the possible removal of roughly 4.3 million barrels of crude from U.S. and European markets are likely to have a harmful impact on household balance sheets. Should the conflict continue, we expect it will result in price increases for everything ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Wholesale gas prices Imply 10.4% Increase at the pump
Geopolitical tensions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have roiled oil markets around the world. The global Brent crude benchmark has traded around $115 per barrel and the domestic West Texas Intermediate benchmark stood at $112. A year ago, those prices hovered around $60. The elevated levels ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index shows ebbing confidence
The composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index opened Tuesday at 0.2 standard deviations below zero. Although not significantly different from normal levels of risk, the overall trend shows a loss of confidence and increased volatility, as would be expected at a moment of geopolitical ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens amid rising tensions
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index reached neutral at the end of last week and turned negative on Tuesday’s news that Russia would formalize its control of Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine. Risks to the world order, the balance of power in Europe and fears of another series of supply shocks that ... READ MORE >
In case of emergency break glass: Reviving the enhanced child tax credit to ease inflation
Should the Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine turn into a full-fledged invasion, it is likely that the global and U.S. economies will absorb yet another supply shock. Energy prices will most likely surge in its aftermath, sending inflation higher than the current 7.5%. At this point, given the ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index: Omicron pauses improvement
Stress in the U.S. supply chain increased in January as the omicron surge temporarily put some parts of overall production to a halt. While we still expect stress on U.S. and global supply chains to improve this year, geopolitical tensions associated with the imminent Russian incursion into Ukraine ... READ MORE >
Reimagining the workforce for the digital age: An RSM and U.S. Chamber discussion
Click to watch the webcast As the pandemic has convulsed America’s real economy, middle market businesses have had to contend with profound changes to their workforces, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US, and Neil Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The ... READ MORE >
Energy shock: Potential impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine
A tight oil market and potential spillover from geopolitical competition has unnerved investors over the past few months, sending oil prices to elevated levels not observed in years. The price of oil has almost doubled since the start of last year and, given current tensions, is poised to move higher. ... READ MORE >