The dollar is set to soar in the next year amid an expansionary fiscal policy and a new tariff regime, leading to more capital inflows to the United States. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
As European economy deteriorates, ECB needs to be more aggressive
The European Central Bank is clearly going to need to get far more aggressive in its easing campaign as the continental economy slips back into pull of recession’s gravity. … READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
The American economy continues to undergo a regime change that will bring less volatility and greater resilience to shocks. … READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
One-time special factors and ongoing sticky shelter and service prices combined to cause an increase of 2.6% in the consumer price index in October. … READ MORE >
To contend with higher tariffs, businesses need to act now
Higher tariffs are likely over the next few years. In our estimation, firms do not have the luxury to wait and see how the policy changes turn out. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. … READ MORE >
The increased attractiveness of corporate bonds as the Fed cuts rates
We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. … READ MORE >
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
We would urge investors, firm managers and policymakers not to overinterpret the temporary factors driving the top-line decline and to expect a similar dynamic in the November jobs estimate. … READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue to increase. … READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with full employment, price stability and strong productivity gains. … READ MORE >